Donald Trump is attempting a coup. A failed coup, but a coup all the same. It’s no wonder Trump misses his coup. He’s messy and doesn’t take advice from anyone.
Yet we wonder who, apart from a few faithful like Steve Bannon, Rudy Giuliani or Jared Kushner, could advise him on the best way to succeed in his coup. Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping or Recep Tayyip Erdogan perhaps? A man who owned a casino and still managed to go bankrupt is capable of a lot of mess. The curious thing is that this coup attempt had been announced for months.
1. Why can we speak of an attempted coup?
A coup is the sudden and illegitimate takeover of a government by a small group of individuals. A successful coup requires the support of the armed or police forces, or at least part of them. It is indeed Trump and a small group of individuals who are illegitimately trying to maintain control of the US government. Trump has also fired senior military and security officials and replaced them with loyal men. Trump is also trying to win the favor of the police force by falsely claiming that Joe Biden wants to define them.
2. What are the other signs of an attempted coup?
Trump evaluated as early as last summer how to bypass the popular vote of certain states. For months, Trump has been trying to make it look like the elections are fraudulent. A pretext for the lawmakers of the republican states that he would have lost to refuse to recognize the popular will and to name the big voters who are in his favor. On the other hand, on the night of the vote, Trump hastened to declare himself the winner, when he knew very well that the final count risked making him the loser. Even though Biden clearly won the election, in terms of the number of votes and the number of voters, Trump is trying to challenge the results in court. The Donald goes further. He has summoned lawmakers from Michigan to the White House this weekend and he’s juggling the idea of ​​meeting those from Pennsylvania.
3. Why will the coup fail?
Trump’s coup is unlikely to work, for several reasons. First, the judges rejected all his claims relating to electoral fraud. The more it persists in this path, the more it loses legitimacy in the eyes of its population and the rest of the world. Second, it is far from certain that he has won the favor of the military. On the contrary, several military leaders have made statements that contradict its military policies. Ultimately, he only manages to buy and terrorize certain elected Republicans. And during this time, Biden’s power and influence grows.
4. Could Trump be prosecuted?
The more Trump persists in the path of a coup, the more Republican elected officials confine themselves to complicit silence, the more powerful the reaction against them will be. The sanction could be both legal and electoral.
5. How will American democracy emerge?
Trump’s maneuvers exposed several weaknesses in American democracy. It would not be surprising if after Trump’s adventure, the Americans changed their Constitution so that another imbalance would never again attempt this kind of maneuver.