A Texas Democrat?

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By admin

The question mark at the end of the title of my post this morning is very important. You would have asked me that question two, four or eight years ago, and I would have quickly told you that such a result is impossible.

If I’m still struggling to convince myself of the possibility of a victory for Joe Biden in this Republican stronghold, I can no longer dismiss this possibility with the back of my hand.

Already, in the past year, I have published two posts on the concerns of several Republicans in this state, the second most populous, which will bring back 38 voters to the one who obtains the most votes. You can also consult these tickets for November 4 and November 6, 2019 here and here.

For many years, analysts have observed demographic trends and have argued that the Republican Party will eventually have to adapt to significant growth in minorities in the urban centers of several southern cities. The political party will soon no longer be able to stretch the white vote in order to hope to maintain its advantage.

Not only are Republicans in Texas worried – probably the most eloquent of them being William Hurd (the only black Republican representative) – but many Texas Democrats were impatient with the timidity of the Democratic machine’s efforts to promote the election of Joe Biden in their state. Their appeal has been heard.

In addition to demographic change and the increased importance of urban centers, Democrats also count on a strong ally in the fight for the “Lone Star State”: Donald Trump himself. The Spanish-speaking vote is not entirely won by Democrats, and many were still looking to Republicans until recently.

But as Rep. Hurd recalled in November, they need to be listened to and respected. Trump’s rhetoric, particularly his controversial racist, misogynistic, or homophobic outbursts, particularly repels them. Do I really need to revisit his management of immigration and dreamers?

For months, multiple polls point to a tight result. If Biden has already been in the first row, since September it is President Trump who has regularly enjoyed a three to four point advantage.

I still believe that once again Texas will lean on the Republican side, but the mere fact of taking an interest seems to me an important indicator of the difficulties of the Trump campaign. Beyond the current election, this situation also demonstrates the need for Republicans to review their strategy.

If the Democrats are still slow to reach rural areas effectively or to gain the confidence of a significant part of the white male electorate (we seem to be doing better this time), the Republican Party will have to adjust quickly to a constantly changing demographics. This is not a recent problem, but a change of course is needed more than ever.

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