According to currency experts, the situation in Belarus and the poisoning of opposition politician Alexei Navalny play against the ruble exchange rate. Without these events, the Russian currency would have been stronger, writes RBC.
On September 7, the dollar exchange rate at the Moscow Exchange broke its record since April, reaching 76.24 rubles. The euro, in turn, exceeded the mark of 90 rubles. for the first time since February 2016. Later that day, the ruble strengthened its position slightly, but not fundamentally.
There is also a strengthening of the euro against the dollar: in the spring – $ 1.08, in September – $ 1.18.
Dmitry Dolgin, chief economist at ING for Russia and the CIS, believes that without the news of the last two or three weeks, the ruble would have been about 72.5 rubles. for $ 1.
Among the “bad news,” the expert listed the constant threat of sanctions against Russia, the poisoning of Navalny, the situation with Belarus. If all these events had not happened, Dolgin believes, the rate would have been around 70 rubles. for $ 1.
Bank of America’s chief economist for Russia, Vladimir Osakovsky, also believes that the current weakening of the ruble is entirely due to geopolitical aspects. The expert immediately gave a forecast for the rate at the end of the year: $ 1 – 68 rubles. taking into account the dynamics of oil prices, expectations for the rates of the US FRS and the ECB.