Trump’s impeachment, the COVID-19 pandemic and the attempted insurgency are rightly at the forefront of the news.
This exceptional news relegates Mike Pompeo’s foreign policy shenanigans to the background. Yet it is in these external political decisions that the future of the United States could take root. Alex Tillerson, who served as Secretary of State to Donald Trump, just granted the magazine Foreign Policy a blood-curdling interview. Basically, according to him, Trump’s foreign policy is a total failure. Worse, he expects China and the United States to go to war by the end of the decade.
Table Of Contents
1. What is Mike Pompeo doing in foreign policy?
Mike Pompeo is tightening up Trump’s policies. Policies which until now have not brought any satisfactory results. For example, rather than dissuading Israel from attacking Iran, Pompeo does everything to stabilize alliances around the Hebrew state. The government of Benjamin Netanyahu could thus have free rein to attack Iran. Pompeo continues to work for the rapprochement between Israel and several Arab states in the region. Another example: Pompeo placed the Houtis on the list of terrorists, while this Shiite population is mainly trying to defend itself against Yemen’s subjugation to Saudi Arabia. Iran emerges isolated and Washington loses leverage over Tehran and Riyadh.
2. Why does Tillerson think China and the United States are at risk of going to war?
Tillerson believes China will want Taiwan back soon. Tillerson believes that Xi Jinping will want to dissuade the Americans from defending Taiwan. He could attempt to frighten the Americans with threats of direct strikes against their interests. But the attack on Pearl Harbor shows that the United States does not back down when its vital interests are at stake. However, to abandon Taiwan would be a signal to abandon to the allies of the United States. Conversely, in China, leaders who boast too openly about reclaiming Taiwan and fail to do so will pay a high political price.
3. What direction will Joe Biden take in foreign policy?
Although it is still early days to distinguish Biden’s foreign policy, his appointments as veterans of diplomacy and politics herald a return to the era of Barak Obama. However, Democrats and Republicans have come together very close on several foreign policy issues, particularly China. On the other hand, the various foreign services have been so decimated by the Trump administration that Biden admitted that he must first get down to rebuilding these services. So it’s likely that Biden is looking to keep a low profile in international relations.
4. Will Biden be able to restore what Trump destroyed?
Biden is unlikely to be able to give the United States back the importance it had in international relations before Trump arrived. First, because the relative power of the United States is decreasing every year. Secondly, because the allies of the United States have understood that in the current global logic, they will have to rely more and more on themselves to prosper and defend themselves.
5. And Canada in this great game?
Canada has new opportunities, especially with the allies of the United States. However, to seize these opportunities, it needs a Prime Minister and a Minister of Foreign Affairs who are able to understand the new challenges and to impose themselves. This is not the case.