Will the white electorate be there?

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The Republican convention begins this evening and the outgoing president will be omnipresent. Speaking after Joe Biden allows him to better target his attacks while hoping that it is his message that we will remember.

Never in the history of the United States has a sitting president faced such a setback when seeking a second term. This morning the site FiveThirtyEight claims that the Democratic candidate has a 73% chance of overtaking his rival. This does not mean that Donald Trump is beaten, however it is one more indicator of the difficulties that Donald Trump is having.

Another element should also hold the attention of strategists of the Trump campaign who have just invested a colossal sum to take social media by storm. For several electoral cycles, Republicans have staked almost everything on a white electorate. Again this year Donald Trump is betting almost everything on this portion of the electorate, often to the detriment of other clienteles such as women, Spanish speakers and, above all, the black community.

According to a study carried out by the NPR (National Public Radio) site, if the president succeeded in mobilizing the white electorate in 2016, it will be difficult to repeat the feat. To hope to bridge the gap that currently separates him from Joe Biden, the president must maintain his support from the last election and add others. However, it is not certain that the white electorate, especially the older voters, will support it with the same enthusiasm.

Unlike his first presidential campaign, Donald Trump must now defend a record. He can once again rely on his presumed talents in business and invoke respect for law and order, he still has to explain his management of the country, particularly his management of the health crisis.

Many of the seniors interviewed by NPR will remain loyal to the president, but it would be wrong not to consider their reservations or their criticisms. They recognize that Donald Trump is untrustworthy, that he chirps too much, that he lies regularly and that his abrasive and vulgar style is hardly suited to a president. Why stay by his side? Because at least he defends cases for which the Democrats do not offer a satisfactory counterpart.

Where there is food for thought for Republican strategists is that a not inconsiderable number of seniors are defecting. How many exactly? We won’t know until November 3, but if we remember the small margin of victory in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania and Michigan (less than 1%, a few tens of thousands of votes in total), Donald Trump absolutely cannot lose voters in this category.

As the convention begins, keep in mind the data I’m presenting today, the strategists will. Thursday evening, Donald Trump will wish he had influenced the situation enough to avoid reading too often this kind of declaration: “It’s OK that we voted for Donald Trump in the first election. Do I want a Democrat? Do I want Joe Biden? Not really . But four more years of Donald Trump will be disastrous for the country. ” How to properly translate this statement? White seniors will vote for Biden by default, disappointed with the billionaire’s first tenure.

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