American University professor Allan Lichtman believes that former Vice President Joe Biden will win in the November presidential elections. The expert shared his opinion with The New York Times.
The historian has accurately predicted the outcome of the presidential election since 1984. And in 2016, he was one of the few who predicted the victory of Republican Donald Trump, as well as his passage through impeachment proceedings.
Lichtman developed his own 13 Key Factors system that allows him to make predictions. Among them are the advantage of the position held, the presence of an independent candidate in the race, long-term and short-term economic indicators, popular unrest, scandals, the charisma of the applicant, and so on.
So, according to the expert, there will be seven factors on the side of Biden against Trump’s six. In particular, the impeachment scandal, the loss of the Republican majority in the House of Representatives of the Congress, the economic crisis due to the coronavirus pandemic, as well as numerous protests in the country can play against the current leader.
Many thought they knew who would win the presidential election in 2016. Professor Allan Lichtman actually did. In this video, Professor Lichtman walks us through the 13 “keys” to winning the White House, and what the keys predict for 2020. https://t.co/oqwVozLvFq pic.twitter.com/JSq0lN8dtB
– New York Times Opinion (@nytopinion) August 5, 2020
In May, Stony Brook University political science professor Helmut Norpot predicted Donald Trump’s victory in the upcoming November elections with a 91% probability.
At the same time, data from a July poll by the Real Clear Politics portal indicate that Biden is ahead of the current head of state by an average of 8.6% in popularity among voters.
The US presidential election is due on November 3, 2020.