With less than a month before the presidential election in the United States, Democratic candidate Joe Biden (53%) now has a ten-point lead over his Republican opponent Donald Trump (43%) according to a recent Leger poll.
“Mr. Biden’s lead grows every two weeks. We note three major events in the last week: the tax fraud denounced by the NY Times, the disastrous leaders’ debate for Mr. Trump and his hospitalization, ”said Jean-Marc Léger.
The final choice of voters is also well arrested (94%), a score unprecedented according to the pollster.
Table Of Contents
The impact of COVID is negative
As short as it was, President Trump’s hospitalization seems to favor Joe Biden in several ways for the moment.
Sympathy for Trump exists, but it does not increase his support. It remains to be seen how the 74-year-old billionaire will react after leaving hospital.
About 39% of respondents believe the current president got what he deserved because he downplayed the risk of the virus.
The majority (61%), however, think it is a sad event and wish them a speedy recovery.
“Donald Trump has always presented himself as invincible and unbeatable. He laughed at Biden’s old age saying he wasn’t strong. And it is he who finds himself ill. The superman ate a blow, ”says Jean-Marc Léger.
Still high enthusiasm
Despite the recent chaotic debate, interest in the campaign remains high with 86% of respondents eager to support their candidate.
Americans are far from jaded by the current race.
If Donald Trump has always been seen as the winner, the trend is now reversed.
“Following his hospitalization, this is the first time Biden has been seen as the winner. Americans are starting to think Biden is going to win. This was not the case at the beginning, ”explains Mr. Léger.
About 48% of respondents still believe Donald Trump will win.
A problematic start
Americans are rather divided at the moment on the departure of Donald Trump in case of defeat.
About 41% of respondents do not believe the president will leave the White House peacefully, while 38% say he will do so without problem.
“This is the first time that the question has been asked,” points out Jean-Marc Léger. In a particular context, Americans are also paying close attention to candidates for the post of vice-president, particularly because of the age and state of health of the chiefs.
Some 63% of respondents want to listen to the next debate between Kamala Harris and Mike Pence.
Liar and racist
The result of the poll on the characteristics of the two adversaries is hardly flattering for Donald Trump.
The latter is seen as a liar (55%), a racist (49%) and a misogynist (47%), three perceptions much higher than for Joe Biden.
President Trump is, however, seen to be more dynamic (49%) than Biden (29%).
Finally, Trump is also, according to respondents, a stronger leader (47%) than Biden (37%).
“We hate him or we love him, it’s one or the other. In the United States, it is certain that this election is a referendum on Trump first, ”added Mr. Léger, speaking of Donald Trump.
METHODOLOGY
The web survey was conducted by Léger from October 2 to 4, 2020 among 1,001 Americans, aged 18 or over, randomly recruited to ensure a representative sample.