The index of physical volume of gross domestic product in the second quarter of 2020 relative to the period of 2019, according to preliminary estimates, amounted to 91.5%, that is, the drop in GDP was 8.5% and was noted only in the second quarter, according to the monthly report of Rosstat according January-June 2020
The assessment was performed using the production method and based on operational data on the dynamics of production of large and medium-sized enterprises in the non-financial sector of the economy. At the same time, in the second quarter of 2020, a decrease in the growth rate of value added was observed in all sectors of the economy, with the exception of agriculture, follows from the document.
The fall in Russia’s GDP in the second quarter turned out to be less than predicted, experts noted.
According to the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development, the drop in GDP in the second quarter could have amounted to 9.6%. For its part, the Central Bank predicted a decline in the indicator by 9.5-10%.
If we talk about the spheres of the economy, the specialists noted the maximum decrease in the raw materials sector, retail trade, passenger transportation, as well as in industries related to the provision of services to the population.
The minimum was recorded in manufacturing, construction, wholesale trade and cargo transportation, as well as in the provision of electricity, gas and steam and air conditioning.
In the same period, the growth of production in agriculture amounted to 3.1%, in the industrial sector, production decreased by 8.5% (while the decline in mining – 10.3%), retail turnover decreased by 16.6%, passenger turnover – by 79.0%, public catering – by 48.9%, the volume of paid services to the population – by 37.2%.
The preliminary estimate of GDP for the second quarter of 2020 is based on the operational statistical reporting of large and medium-sized enterprises in the non-financial sector of the economy (industrial production, mining, transport, construction, trade) for the first quarter of 2020. In the analysis, specialists use methods of mathematical modeling.
At the end of July, the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina noted that in Russia, the recovery of economic activity could take more than a year and a half. She predicted a 13-15% drop in Russian exports in 2020 due to a decrease in external demand. This is what will make the most significant contribution to reducing the country’s GDP, the financier believes.