In 1950, the figure was 4.7, and in 2017 it dropped to 2.4. According to the forecast of university scientists, by the end of this century, it will fall to 1.7. Our planet’s population will peak at 9.7 billion in about 2064, and then decline to 8.8 billion in 2100. In almost all countries (183 out of 195), the fertility rate will fall below the “substitutability” level of 2.1. In 23 countries, including Italy and Japan, the population will decline by more than 50%, while the other 34 countries, including China, will decline by more than 25%.
In 2017, there were 681 million children under the age of 5 and 141 million people over the age of 80 in the world. By 2100, according to experts, the number of children under the age of 5 will drop to 401 million, and the number of elderly people over the age of 80 will increase to 866 million. “Since fewer young people will have to take care of more old people, we will have to do a major reorganization of society,” warns Christopher Murray, lead author of the study. He predicts “open competition for migrants” – especially from Central and West Africa, where the population by the end of the century will triple to 3 billion.
But migration will not help solve the problem if fertility rates continue to decline in most countries, Murray said. “If we do not find a solution, then, in the end, man as a species can disappear,” the expert warns. “True, we still have time – several centuries.”