The process of the second impeachment of Donald Trump a week before the inauguration of the new US president creates unnecessary difficulties for the Democrat Joe Biden. Experts interviewed by Izvestia believe that the hype created by the Democratic Party led by the Speaker of the House of Representatives Nancy Pelosi shifts the focus from the plans of the next administration, leaving the outgoing head of the White House a key figure in the media space. Meanwhile, the lower house of Congress has already backed impeachment against the Republican.
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Ward number two
As expected, on January 13, the House of Representatives, where the Democratic Party holds the majority, met to vote to impeach incumbent President Donald Trump. In this way, opponents decided to officially make the Republican the first president in US history, for whose resignation the lower house of Congress voted as many as two times… On December 18, 2019, Democrats already found the current head of the White House guilty of crimes sufficient to deprive him of the Oval Office. Then the Republican was saved by party members in the Senate, opposing the resignation.
This time, the process of looking for reasons and argumentation for the removal of Donald Trump was minimized. The Democrats did not conduct any investigations and immediately accused the US president of inciting mutiny., agreeing that it was because of his words that a group of Republican supporters broke into the building of Congress on January 6.
No one doubted that the vote on January 13 would end with Donald Trump’s accusation. But before the meeting, there were many rumors in the press that about 20 party representatives would vote with the Democrats. However, the speech of the leader of the Republican minority Kevin McCarthy as a whole reflected, apparently, a more or less coordinated position. According to him, the president is responsible for the storming of the Capitol by his supporters, but impeachment in such a tight timeframe – without any investigations whatsoever – would be a big mistake that would further divide the nation.
According to Yuri Rogulev, director of the Franklin Roosevelt Foundation for the Study of the United States (MSU), the Republican Party faced a difficult choice.
– As early as 2022, there will be midterm elections to Congress. And if Republicans abandon Trump now, where will Trump’s electorate go? But what about those Republicans who have built their careers on supporting Trump’s ideas? Change your shoes in the air? Therefore, they are trying to find some kind of compromise. For example, they offered to express censure to the president, not impeachment, ”the expert told Izvestia.
Back in 2016, the Republican Party was slow to welcome Donald Trump with open arms. Then, when he had already entered the White House, it began to seem that he was “one of the Republicans”, says Valery Garbuzov, head of the Institute of the USA and Canada at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
– However, the love was not that deep. And in case of unpleasant situations – and on January 6, to put it mildly, such a situation developed – some of the party members were ready to turn their backs on him… If the raid on the Capitol led to more extensive casualties or explosions inside, then the scope of de-trumping would be wider. Why did Richard Nixon resign at the time? Because his own people began to turn away from him. The Republicans understood that Nixon was drowning the party, and he knew in advance that they would vote against him. Trump has a different scale – the smoke is thinner and the chimney is lower. Even if some of the Republicans are against him now, the impeachment story will not work in the Senate. This is a story about pulling Trump’s nerves once more.– the political scientist explained to Izvestia.
Meanwhile, the impeachment and reaction of the party elite to it may end in a serious split among the Republicans, among whom there are enough Trumpists. There are pages in the history of this game that are worth remembering when examining the current situation. More than 100 years ago – in 1912, former US President Theodore Roosevelt fell out with his successor William Taft and, together with a group of supporters, left the Republicans, forming the Progressive Party, recalled Valery Garbuzov.
– Roosevelt then, however, lost. Dissenters always fail in America. But this is in the interests of the Democrats, since the party that preserves integrity – at least visible, wins, the expert added.
However, Donald Trump may well go to the elections again from the Republicans in four years and without any splitif he still has the support of the electorate.
– He is the leader of public opinion – he was, is and will be for some time. The power and influence of Trump among voters is great, so no party bosses can do anything with him if he wants to return, ” the political scientist noted.
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Meanwhile, many, including the American media, pay attention that Joe Biden has somewhat withdrawn from the impeachment story… If Nancy Pelosi and other party representatives did not miss a day without admonitions why Donald Trump should be expelled from the White House without delay, then the future American leader tried his best not to accidentally lead this crusade.
According to the experts interviewed by Izvestia, there are quite logical explanations for this. The fact is that impeachment doesn’t help Joe Biden in any way, shifting the focus from the new administration’s “good deeds” to the outgoing president…
– It is very important for Biden to appear in the eyes of Americans as the real father of the nation.… Pelosi cannot claim this – she is too unkind to Trump. And almost 75 million people who voted for Trump is still an impressive figure. Biden understands that he needs more than just Democratic support. He, of course, won, but in a precarious balance. And he needs an image of a person who is ready to accept the demands of that part of conservative America that is ready to follow Trump. Only then can he feel more confident, since all victories on the brink are fraught. Today you are a winner, and tomorrow these two tenths of a percent play for others, and you fail, ” Valery Garbuzov explained.
The impeachment situation, which only further angers Donald Trump supporters, only hinders Joe Biden… According to the expert, the actually elected president finds himself on opposite sides of the barricades with Nancy Pelosi, who “wants to bury Trump so that he cannot be seen or heard ever – this is her goal, but Biden has different goals.”
Besides, the future president has an inauguration on his nose, for which it is necessary to prepare, but “everyone just talks about Trump, but they forgot about him”, stressed Yuri Rogulev. And all of the plans for the next White House team don’t get the media coverage they deserve, appearing on the news in the background.
“Besides, Biden understands that impeachment is a double-edged sword. He remembers that the hunt was not only for Trump. Democrat Bill Clinton, for example, was hunted with great zeal by the Republicans. This could overtake Biden too. Nobody is insured. Therefore, it does not suit him to throw himself into this pool and fully support Pelosi, ” the political scientist concluded.
Anyway, Democrats will not have time to complete the impeachment process by January 20. As the representatives of the leader of the Republican majority in the Senate Mitch McConnell have already told the American press, for the sake of such an occasion he will not gather the upper house, which is now on vacation.… It is possible that the Senate will consider this issue on the day of the inauguration. If this happens, then there is no doubt about which of the two political events will be riveted more attention – the inauguration of Joe Biden, which, moreover, due to the coronavirus will be held in a very truncated format, or the decision of the fate of Donald Trump.