It will take years to restore employment in New York to pre-coronavirus levels

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The prospects for the labor market in the city are not bright. Even in the best case scenario, if vaccinations are carried out on a tight schedule and the economy rebounds rapidly nationwide, it will take years for employment in New York to reach pre-coronavirus levels.

The experts of the Independent Budget Office (abbreviated as IBO), an agency that provides information on budget issues, came to such an uncomfortable conclusion.

Last year, the city lost 620 thousand jobs – 14.1% of the total number of jobs in the labor market. The Independent Budget Office predicts that employment will grow 4.6% in 2021, another 5% in 1922, and then slower growth over the next two years.

“However, even by the end of 2024, it will not be possible to reach the peak that was noted before the pandemic,” says the January IBO report, entitled “Tough Times Ahead”. “The picture as a whole remains uncertain, as now many businesses and residents are trying to assess all the risks and benefits of continuing to live and work in this city.”

Economist James Parrott of the Center for New York City Affairs at New School University agrees with the IBO’s findings.

“It puzzles me a little when people say with confidence that when the vaccine is applied on a massive scale and social distancing is necessary, the economy will immediately rebound,” he told the Daily News. “I’m not at all sure the economic recovery will go as smoothly as many claim.”

In last year’s city budget, IBO specialists found a surplus of $ 1.5 billion. It was formed from tax revenues to the treasury, which de Blasio did not take into account. The money will help fill the holes in the new fiscal year, but will not completely close the $ 2.6 billion deficit. There was hope for the latest federal aid package, but it did not include local government subsidies. And without them, experts say, it is impossible to survive.

“Without alternative sources, such as federal aid, the city will likely have to deplete its reserves, increase taxes and fines and cut spending,” says the Hard Times Ahead report.

Published in the newspaper “Moskovsky Komsomolets” No. 0 dated November 30 -0001

Newspaper headline:
Difficult times ahead

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