Hang in there, we’re coming to the top of the roller coaster. The descent will be quick and hectic. Unless one of the two camps takes the victory by a large margin, the following weeks will be filled with twists and turns.
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It is unlikely that the final election results will be announced on Tuesday evening.
Moreover, Trump has made it clear that he is going to challenge any tight results. Not only by calling for a recount, but also by accusing the opposing party of electoral fraud. Courts may be called upon to rule on the outcome of the vote in several states.
Worse yet, under the guise of cheating, Republican-held states could force their constituents to vote for Trump, despite a popular vote for Biden.
The Senate
The most important issue after the election of the president is that of the Senate. Will the Democrats manage to wrest the majority from the Republicans? It seems so, but only barely. Here again, the elections are expected to be hotly contested.
The House of Representatives escapes this uncertainty, since the Democrats are expected to strengthen their majority there. A Republican Senate could effectively block Biden. On the other hand, a Democratic Congress would be dangerous for Trump.
A possible re-election of Trump by court challenge could spark a wave of civil disobedience and emigration among Democrats. Conversely, if Joe Biden wins by a narrow margin, protests could arise and some Republican groups could take violent action.
The situation is so tense that articles on the Civil War abound in American newspapers.
Same goals
A re-election of Trump would help deteriorate the image of the United States abroad.
Biden wants to re-enter the Paris Climate Agreement. He is also much more active than Trump in the area of human rights. Under Biden, relations between the United States and several dictatorships or near-dictatorships would deteriorate, starting with North Korea.
But Democrats and Republicans share common views on several key aspects of U.S. foreign policy.
The two parties are convinced of the new dangerousness of China and in particular of the government of Xi Jinping. The enemy antagonism between China and the United States is here for good. Likewise, it is difficult to see what would prevent Biden from pursuing protectionist policies in various fields, notably in agriculture. Canada should work hard to find new allies among Democratic leaders.
Prediction
My prediction is that Biden will win the popular vote on vote night and his lead will grow stronger as the days pass, including among the top voters.
Trump, at first, will refuse to admit defeat, but he will be forced to come to terms with it.