“Since these states are likely to report results quickly, there is a good chance the presidential election outcome will be clear on election night,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note to clients Tuesday.
In other words, if Biden wins any of those Sun Belt states, the market may have enough information to conclude that the Democrat will ultimately become the next president.
However, if Biden has a poor showing in the Sun Belt, the outcome could remain uncertain for some time.
“If President Trump wins these Sun Belt states, the contest will hinge on Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin,” Goldman Sachs economists wrote, adding that it will likely take days to get results from Pennsylvania and Michigan.
“The Senate majority is likely to become clear on election night, but not the exact margin,” Goldman Sachs wrote in the report.
The seats where Republicans are trailing or in a dead-heat also happen to be in states that should report results quickly: Colorado, Arizona, North Carolina, Maine, Iowa, Georgia and Montana, Goldman said.
But it could take time to learn the ultimate breakdown in the Senate because of potential runoffs in Georgia and delayed ballot counting in Michigan and Alaska.