The past week has been brutal for the Republican campaign. If it’s up to the voters, Donald Trump is heading straight for defeat.
With 26 days to go, I will be told that it is unwise to venture into the forecast, but it is now extraordinarily unlikely that Donald Trump and his party can turn the tide.
Will America’s Democratic Institutions Hold Up?
Nothing goes
The signs of Trump’s defeat are unmistakable. While millions of Americans have already cast their votes, the poll averages Joe Biden almost 10 points ahead and support for Trump shows no sign of resuming.
Some pollsters estimate the difference to be more than 15 points. It’s a bit strong, but results like this indicate that a reversal in favor of Trump is almost inconceivable.
In key states, Trump is backing down. Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan, which gave Trump the last minute victory in 2016, are now clearly leaning towards Biden.
Florida and Arizona are also on their way to eluding Trump, not least because his monumental failure to deal with the pandemic has wiped out his senior advantage. The fact that he continues to downplay this crisis and ignore the suffering of the victims will not help.
Another sign that Trump is heading for defeat is the panic that has gripped Republicans, who are unsure of what foot to dance on regarding emergency measures to counter the impacts of the pandemic.
We are no longer in 2016
I will be told that several, including me, also predicted a defeat for Trump in 2016. It has nothing to do with it. Biden’s lead is much larger than Clinton’s, and opposition to Trump is much stronger, consistent, and solid than in 2016.
This election is a referendum on a president who has never received the support of a majority of his fellow citizens and, above all, the objective conditions of the country are irreparably unfavorable to him.
In 2016, Trump was no more popular than he is today, but he could count on a major asset: his opponent was almost as unpopular as him. Joe Biden doesn’t provoke the same feelings at all, and several Republicans seem willing to give him a chance.
It’s not all over
With 26 days to go, the undecided are so rare that even if they all line up behind Trump, it is not clear that this will be enough for him. Barring an unlikely collapse of Biden, it now seems a given that the American electorate is determined to show Trump the door.
The wave of opposition to Donald Trump looks like a tsunami that could cost his party control of the Senate. It will be interesting, by November 3, to watch vulnerable Republican senators distance themselves from the president.
The will of the voters is hardly any more in doubt, but all is not entirely decided. It remains to be seen how far Donald Trump and his allies will go to prevent the expression of this will or provoke a constitutional crisis that risks tainting American democratic institutions.