The European Union will find an ally and a partner with the election of Joe Biden as President of the United States, but Europeans must not be deluded: Washington will not once again become the world’s policeman or the great protector at NATO, warn leaders and analysts.
We will have to “rebuild our partnership”: the head of European diplomacy Josep Borrell summed up the issue on Saturday in his message of congratulations.
The political and military disengagement around the world was initiated by Barack Obama and Joe Biden, who was then its vice-president. Donald Trump continued the movement, more brutally, sparking strong tensions with the EU, viewed with hostility by the Republican president.
Can Joe Biden turn back the clock? The former president of the European Commission Jean-Claude Juncker doubts it: “He cannot change the Washington approach to international things”, he maintains.
In addition, in the event of a Republican majority in the Senate, the administration of Joe Biden would be a “lame duck”, deplores Nathalie Tocci, director of the Instituto Affari Internazionali.
“The United States will remain folded in on itself”, replies the German political scientist Markus Kaim. Consequence: “Europeans must learn to live without American leadership”, summarizes Sébastien Maillard, director of the Jacques Delors Institute.
” Hard awakening “
Things can become easier, but “we must not wait for a radical change”, we warn in the entourage of the presidents of the European institutions.
“To believe in a return to the fantasized golden age of the transatlantic link is to ignore the evolution of the United States and the international context”, also warns the French MEP Arnaud Danjean, specialist in defense issues, predicting “A difficult awakening” after a brief euphoria.
The EU will have to pursue and strengthen its “strategic autonomy” for its economy and security, in order to defend its interests, diplomats and political scientists jointly insist.
All is not gloomy: “The relationship will become more predictable and more constructive on trade, NATO, Iran, the Middle East and the fight against climate change – if the United States returns to it. Paris agreement ”, analyzes Mujtaba Rahman, director of Eurasia Group Europe.
The future American president has assured of his willingness to join the Paris agreement on the climate, the World Health Organization (WHO) and the nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPOA), renounced by Donald Trump.
A relaxation is also expected in trade relations, where Washington had opened hostilities. A truce struck with the promise of a mini-trade deal has not materialized.
Towards “strategic autonomy”?
But Joe Biden will not go back on the strategic pivot operated by Washington towards the Pacific and China, nor on the desire to end “endless” wars and bring American troops back to the country, because it is popular. in the United States, explains Nicole Koenig, specialist in defense issues for the Berlin-based Delors Institute.
Donald Trump’s unilateral decisions and his aversion to certain leaders of the Atlantic Alliance have created tensions and divisions in NATO. Its secretary general, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg has spent a lot to “appease the beast”, underlines a diplomat.
Mr. Stoltenberg quickly hailed Joe Biden on Saturday as “a strong supporter of the Alliance”.
However, if NATO calls for normalization, Washington should refocus on American interests, argues Markus Kaim: “It will be uncomfortable for Europeans”, he notes, because NATO members are divided between pro-Europeans and pro-Atlanticists.
“The illusions of European strategic autonomy must come to an end: the Europeans cannot replace America’s crucial role as a security provider,” said the very Atlanticist German Minister of Defense Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, member of the CDU, Angela Merkel’s party, in a column published by Politico Europe.
“We will never live again in the world before, that of a systematic protection and benevolence of the United States”, replied Clément Beaune, the French Secretary of State for European Affairs, close adviser to President Emmanuel Macron.
An intermediate scenario could emerge: “Joe Biden will propose a sort of geographical division of labor, with more responsibilities assumed by Europeans for the security and stability of the European neighborhood, in order to allow the United States to get involved. more in Asia, ”says Markus Kaim.