Analysts predict GDP growth of 2.7% in 2024

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GDP growth in 2024 will amount to 2.7%, follows from the consensus forecast compiled by Izvestia based on a survey of analysts from leading financial organizations and institutions.

The most optimistic forecast – an increase in gross product by 3.5-3.7% – was presented in the state-owned banks VTB, Sberbank, Rosselkhoz, as well as in ACRA. The growth points will be the recovery in paid services and transport, the revival in construction, retail and export-oriented sectors, said Alexander Isakov, chief economist at VTB Capital for Russia and the CIS. If tough restrictive measures in the world and in Russia last a maximum of two months, growth of more than 3.5% is real, added Dmitry Kulikov, deputy director of the group of sovereign ratings and macroeconomic analysis of ACRA.

Analysts from Expert RA, FinExpertiza, EDB and Home Credit agreed on an indicator of 3-3.2%. While, according to the senior managing director of the NKR Alexander Proklov, the relatively vigorous recovery of the global economy from the crisis amid a recession, the opening of borders by the middle of the year and the resumption of tourist and trade flows will accelerate GDP by 2.5-2.7%.

2024 will be marked by a return to “normalcy” after the anomalies of the current year, and the economy will grow by 2-2.5%, said UniCredit Bank analyst Ariel Cherny. If it is possible to achieve a breakthrough in the fight against the pandemic in the first quarter, the indicator will go beyond the predicted.

However, a full recovery should be expected in 2023 at best, analysts say. The future course of the pandemic remains the main factor of uncertainty. According to their estimates, in the event of a pessimistic scenario, economic growth will be within 1-2%.

Read more in the exclusive material from Izvestia:

From fall to takeoff: analysts predict GDP growth in 2024 by 2.7%

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