The recovery of the tourism industry can only happen in 2024. This is stated in the study of the international insurance company Euler Hermes.
The current economic downturn associated with the coronavirus pandemic began in the first quarter of last year, which means that global tourism activity and related services can only return to pre-crisis levels starting in the second half of 2022.
According to Euler Hermes analysts, the situation in the international tourism industry will return to normal not earlier than in 2 years. This assessment is corroborated by a survey of industry representatives conducted by the UN World Tourism Organization. Most of the respondents said they believed international tourism would return to pre-pandemic levels in 2023 at best. And 41% of respondents believe that normalization will happen only in 2024 or even later.
According to analysis by Euler Hermes experts, Europe will be the leader in the recovery of the tourism industry compared to other regions, although overall the economy will recover faster in the United States and the Asia-Pacific region. According to the forecast of the insurance company, 771 million foreign tourists may come to European countries in 2024.
In Europe, the number of arriving travelers will grow at a faster rate than other regions of the world, because in 2020 it was Europe that experienced the largest decline in this regard (in absolute terms, the number of foreign tourists who visited Europe in 2020 decreased by more than half a billion people compared to with 2019).
Euler Hermes experts also predict that the EU countries will cooperate with each other in the most optimal way to remove travel restrictions: after all, it is Europe that will benefit most from the revival of tourism. However, for this it is necessary to offer a workable solution to the issue of the passport of the vaccinated against coronavirus or the certificate of vaccination. If vaccinated passports are introduced at about the same time in all regions of the world, then, as analysts say, Europe will see the highest growth in tourism.
Restoring global tourism may be challenging due to continued travel restrictions across the Asia-Pacific and the Americas as new strains of COVID-19 emerge that are less effective against available vaccines.
Regional analysis shows that Europe’s share of the global tourism market in 2024 will increase to 55% (in terms of arrivals). At the same time, North America will continue to account for almost 10% of the market, while the share of the Asia-Pacific region will fall from 25% to 23%.
According to Euler Hermes experts, only domestic tourism will be able to return to normal by next year. But the resurgence of domestic tourism does not offset the losses for the industry as a whole due to the decline in more lucrative international and business travel. These market segments may be negatively impacted by 2023.
It is expected that the volume of tourist spending on international travel in 2023 will be 8% less than before the crisis. The rise in unemployment will also exacerbate the problems for the tourism industry, because people are likely to reduce their travel expenses.
Earlier on the same day, it was reported that Greece plans to open an entrance for tourists, including from Russia, by May 14, given a favorable epidemiological situation.