Analysts assessed the forecast of the Ministry of Economic Development

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The Ministry of Economic Development of Russia has adjusted the country’s development forecasts for 2021. This was reported to Izvestia by a source in the department on Thursday, April 22.

Thus, expectations regarding price increases have changed, which should amount to 4.3% by the end of the year (0.6 percentage points higher than the expected level).

The forecast for the dollar exchange rate will be more positive than expected: 73.3 rubles on average for 2021, the ministry said. Oil price expectations have also changed: the average annual forecast for Urals was raised to $ 60.3 per barrel (by $ 15).

The department did not change the forecast for real disposable income of citizens, which should grow by 3% by the end of the year and by 2.4% next year. However, the level of GDP will be lower than planned: 2.9% instead of the expected 3.3%.

Analysts interviewed by Izvestia said that the exchange rate would be different. As the managing director of the NRA Sergei Grishunin noted, if the tension in the international arena persists, the dollar will cost 74-77 rubles instead of the expected 73.3.

Andrei Kadulin, Head of the Analytical Department of Bank Saint Petersburg, added that the inflation forecast announced by the Ministry of Economics is optimistic, and the measures taken to curb price increases may not be enough: inflation could reach 5.5%.

Read the details in the exclusive material from Izvestia:

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