We’ll obviously need to see if the lack of change in the horse race shifts as more data comes in, but it’s not surprising if this is where the data ultimately ends up.
Biden’s net favorability rating climbed 8 points from -3 points last to +5 points among all adults. It’s up from -2 points to +3 points among registered voters. That’s in-line with the average post-convention poll indicating Biden’s net favorability is up by between 5 and 10 points.
Biden’s jump into positive net favorability ratings is a big development — if it holds.
Biden’s now right around where he needs to be to match the winning candidate average in terms of popularity.
Indeed, Biden’s problem has not been his numbers against Trump. He’s over 50% support, and his lead has been sizable and sustained.
If the new polling is any indication, Biden may be locking down the voters who were for him. In that case, it’s going to be much more difficult for Trump to overcome his deficit given Biden’s already over 50%.
You see this well in the CBS News/YouGov poll by comparing last week’s data to this week’s.
Biden voters are now 9 points more likely (29% to 38%) to say they’re mainly voting for Biden because they like Biden, not because he’s the Democratic nominee or because they dislike Trump. Further, his voters are now 5 points more likely (82% to 87%) to say their backing of him is “very strong… decided.”
Whether any of this holds past the conventions is anyone’s guess. It could abate like a normal horserace convention bounce. Though unlike those bounces, Biden merely has to hold on to those who were already in his camp before the conventions.
We’ll see if Trump is able to steal some of those Biden voters this week at the Republican National Convention.