Following the legislative elections in Venezuela, President Nicolas Maduro’s party is expected to regain control of Parliament on Sunday, the only bastion of an opposition led by a losing Juan Guaido who boycotted the ballot to bet everything on a consultation parallel.
Some 20 million voters are called to the polls on Sunday by the National Electoral Council (CNE) to renew the National Assembly increased to 277 seats against 167 before a recent constitutional reform.
The unicameral Parliament chaired by Juan Guaido is the only counter-power controlled by the opposition since the last legislative elections of 2015, which ended 15 years of Chavist hegemony, named after former President Hugo Chavez (1999-2013 ).
But its power is only symbolic, because all its decisions are annulled by the Supreme Court acquired in Maduro, and it is the Constituent Assembly, only formed of Chavist militants, which since 2017 effectively replaces the National Assembly.
This parliamentary vote was well provided for in the Constitution, but Mr. Guaido and his allies say that the conditions for “free, verifiable and transparent” elections are not met.
The major opposition parties reject in particular the appointment by the Supreme Court of a new national electoral council, although this attribution normally falls to Parliament.
Juan Guaido, recognized as interim president by some sixty countries, led by the United States, considers this election organized by the power in place as “a fraud”, a term he used to describe the 2018 presidential election which had allowed the re-election of Nicolas Maduro.
Washington has also said that they were “neither free nor just”; the European Union has unsuccessfully called for their postponement and the Organization of American States does not see anything democratic in this.
“Communication war”
In these conditions of boycott of the opposition, Nicolas Maduro was able to promise “a great triumph”.
For Luis Vicente Leon, political analyst and director of the Datanalisis polling institute, “Maduro is not trying to get the United States or Europe to recognize” the legitimacy of Parliament, “he wants China” and other countries with which it has commercial relations – Russia, India, Mexico or Turkey – “feel that its institutions are functioning and that they will be able to validate future trade agreements”.
Despite the pandemic, Chavismo has mobilized all its machinery with a lot of electoral rallies in order to register the widest possible participation.
However, according to pollsters, it should barely be more than 30%.
For Félix Seijas, director of the Delphos polling institute, this election will be “a war of communication” where each camp will seek to deliver its message to the world: low participation for the opposition and representative success for the Chavistas.
If the main opposition parties have called for a boycott, a small dissident wing determined to participate is accused of offering Maduro the legitimacy he seeks.
“These candidates will benefit from the voices of those who reject Maduro and those of Guaido’s critics for his call for abstention,” Leon said.
The bloc led by Juan Guaido is counting on a popular consultation organized from December 5 to 12 to endorse an extension of the mandate of the current National Assembly and promote new sanctions against the Maduro government.
Venezuelans will be called upon to say whether they reject these legislative elections planned by the government and whether they support “all the pressure mechanisms, inside and outside” of Venezuela to organize a “presidential and legislative elections. free ”.
But these international sanctions, which Juan Guaido calls to “amplify”, arouse 71% of rejection in the population, according to Datanalisis.
Leopoldo Lopez, another opposition leader who recently went into exile in Spain, admitted that international support alone is not enough. “It’s up to us to promote a cycle of mobilization […] within the country ”with this consultation.
Countries supporting Juan Guaido will undoubtedly reject these elections. “But with what force?” Asks Mr. Seijas. “If the rejection is not firm, the opposition will collapse even more.”
Mr. Leon notes that some European governments are reluctant to give carte blanche to the interim president, because according to him “abstention leads absolutely nowhere”, it only serves “to preserve an interim government which is only symbolic”.