President Biden announced yesterday his intention to withdraw American troops from Afghan soil on the 11th. next September. Haunted by the memory of the Vietnamese quagmire, weary of the sacrifice of their soldiers and worried about the astronomical sums invested over the past 20 years, many Americans are delighted by this announcement.
If the announcements of Presidents Trump and Biden about the Afghan conflict have received a positive reception, some observers, including myself, fear the fallout from this delicate operation. Moreover, if Biden postpones the time of withdrawal from May to June and if one can think that he is better surrounded than his predecessor, their political visions, in this file, are united.
Criticized by both Republicans and more moderate Democrats, only the most progressive elected officials cheering for the announcement, the 46e President is well aware of the risks involved.
By withdrawing American forces, Joe Biden risks reducing or nullifying the reach of American efforts in the region for the past 20 years. He already knew this at the time of his vice-presidency and he knows the stakes well. An unconditional withdrawal means leaving the field open to the Taliban, destabilizing the regime in place, considering the possibility of violent uprisings and, especially for Afghan women, going back 20 years.
Even by omitting these political, economic or social files, by arguing that all this is first and foremost for the Afghan people, strategically, withdrawal is risky. As many members of the intelligence services and the military hierarchy recognize the difficulty of maintaining troops in the region, they fear having to return.
We can be tired of this war, which seems to have no real winner, or even not perceive a way out, there are always good reasons which justify maintaining an American presence. Do we even remember the reasons why the United States entered this country in 2001?
The first reason given, after the attacks of September 11, 2001, was the concern to prevent further terrorist attacks. Being present therefore meant intervening directly where the groups were formed, but also obtaining valuable information.
How do you secure the contribution of valuable allies and have first-hand information now? Who do we trust? Are we going to ask the CIA to act clandestinely? Is the use of drones when necessary a possible, fast and efficient option?
In an article he signed yesterday on the Washington post, the journalist turned writer David Ignatius mentioned the work by Fred Charles Iklé entitled Every War Must End (all wars must end). Biden is betting, because it is, that the war in Afghanistan must end now.
I am far from convinced that the decision of the new president is the right one. Afghanistan is not Vietnam and, if it can be argued that it is not the presence of the American army that will contribute to the internal problems of the Afghans, to leave now is to run the risk of a resurgence of terrorism and, above all, to deprive oneself of information verified by the American services.
Once the troops return home, the Biden administration will have to rely on the promises of the Taliban, who pledged a year ago to avoid violence while ensuring the security and stability of their country. . I don’t know if you’re like me, but these promises don’t inspire much confidence in me if the US military is no longer on the ground.