Consumption is on the rise in France, significantly within the automotive sector. – A. GELEBART / 20 MINUTES
The financial restoration that started with deconfinement appears to be accelerating in France, with exercise exhibiting indicators of dynamism in all sectors, however the finish of the 12 months stays unsure and the federal government, cautious, refuses at this stage to revise its forecast. recession for 2020.
The nice indicators observe one another and look the identical in current days: non-public sector exercise has thus clearly recovered in July, specifically in providers which have been laborious hit by the disaster, in line with a really carefully monitored provisional indicator, revealed on Friday. by the IHS Markit agency.
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France, “the strongest resumption of activity in Europe”
“Domestic demand is finally starting to pick up, with a growing number of companies resuming operations, while consumer spending is starting to return to more usual levels,” mentioned Eliot Kerr, economist at IHS Markit, quoted in an announcement.
On Thursday, the enterprise local weather indicator revealed by INSEE already confirmed renewed confidence in July amongst enterprise leaders, who deem the enterprise outlook good in most sectors.
Cocorico: France would even know “the strongest resumption of activity in Europe”, in line with a barometer revealed on Friday by the consulting agency BCG. Nevertheless, after having skilled one of many heaviest falls.
In keeping with this barometer, consumption is choosing up very strongly in France, quicker than in Germany or the UK, as is the exercise of the automotive sector. “For several weeks we have recorded positive indicators which reflect the effectiveness of our measures”, welcomed the Minister of the Financial system Bruno Le Maire Thursday in entrance of the deputies, an allusion to the 460 billion euros of public assets mobilized since mid-March.
The Banque de France additionally expects a rebound of 14% of GDP within the third quarter, and INSEE, extra optimistic, expects a rise of 19%, after a fall of 17% within the second quarter.
However “too fragile” outcomes
However Bruno Le Maire thought of these outcomes “too fragile for us to revise our growth forecasts for the moment”. The federal government continues to be forecasting an 11% contraction in gross home product (GDP) this 12 months, when INSEE expects a drop of 9% and the Banque de France of 10.3%.
“We will continue to fight to (…) do better” than these -11%, nevertheless assured the minister. The restoration plan of 100 billion euros, a part of the measures shall be utilized from the beginning, together with these on youth employment, ought to contribute, earlier than full impact subsequent 12 months.
As a result of the beginning of the varsity 12 months guarantees to be filled with risks for the French economic system. Unemployment might improve sharply with an advanced entry of younger graduates into the labor market. The dangers of chapter and social plans might additionally improve with the top of a sure variety of emergency help measures.
“The return to normal is far from being acquired”
“The return to normal is far from being acquired”, judges Julien Manceaux, economist at ING. “In the service sector, confidence is just above its lowest level in the 2009 crisis. This observation alone shows how the rebound in deconfinement is relative,” he explains in a notice.
In enterprise too, we glance shabby. The beginning of the gross sales is “not very dynamic”, in line with the Procos federation, which brings collectively gamers in specialised commerce. And since January 1, the gross sales of its members have fallen by almost 30% in comparison with final 12 months.
“The situation remains very complicated for a number of stores, the start of the school year and the end of the year will be decisive”, warns Procos, recalling that “the trade is a sector with very strong stake on the front of the social risk and the territorial impact “. An allusion to the difficulties of many manufacturers (Camaïeu, André, Naf Naf…) which augur retailer closures and job cuts.
By way of employment exactly, “if there’s a appreciable enchancment for interim or non permanent contracts, (…) hiring intentions aside from non permanent work are hardly greater than on the backside of the 2009 disaster. “, Also notes Julien Manceaux, illustrating according to him” the doubts (…) as to the extent of exercise which can characterize this new post-covid normality “.