Terrible prognosis for Germany: 25,000 intensive care patients by mid-May

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Intensive care doctors are extremely concerned about the possible relaxation of quarantine measures, the introduction of which is being actively discussed on the eve of the conference of Chancellor Angela Merkel and the prime ministers of the federal states. According to doctors, strict quarantine should be extended, ideally, until April 21st. “Otherwise, it will be difficult or even impossible to control the surging third wave,” warned Gernot Marx, president of the German Association for Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine (Divi).

As an argument, the head of Divi presented a forecast. Experts simulated several situations developing according to different scenarios. The introduction of the easing in March could, at worst, lead to a sharp increase in the number of patients requiring hospitalization and intensive care. The decisive factors are the spread of the B.1.1.7 mutation and the vaccination process for residents of the country over 35 years of age.

If the relaxants are introduced after March 7, by mid-May, up to 25,000 patients may need treatment in intensive care units. This is the worst-case scenario presented by the experts. The maximum number of patients suffering from the disease is extremely difficult, was recorded in January. Then about 6,000 people needed the help of intensive care doctors. Now their number has decreased by more than half, we will amount to 2,900 patients.

Due to the proliferation of mutated strains and the stalled vaccination of the population, the extension of quarantine until early April will result in about 5,000 severe Covid-19 patients in hospitals by mid-May. And this is if the rate of vaccination is faster than the wave of infection.

To summarize, the doctors demanded at least three more weeks of discipline – from March 7 to April 1. These three weeks are decisive in the development of the epidemiological situation in Germany, says Christian Karagiannidis, scientific director of Divi. As the forecast shows, the extension of restrictive measures until April 21 could further stabilize the situation. In this case, only about 2,500 patients with Covid-19 will be in intensive care units.

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