The importance of the new Democratic majority in the Senate has been rightly emphasized. For two years, Joe Biden will be able to benefit from the complicity of the two chambers to promote his initiatives.
However, it would be misunderstanding the functioning of the institutions and underestimating the impact of the divisions within the two political formations, to conclude that the new president will drive on a legislative highway until the mid-term elections of 2022.
Since the swearing in of January 20, we have shone the spotlight on two major issues on which the new Senate will have to rule quickly. The first is the study of emergency economic measures and the second is the start of the impeachment process for Donald Trump.
Either way, you have to be patient because Democratic and Republican leaders Chuck Schumer and Mitch McConnell are still negotiating the rules that surround the operation of the upper house. Being in the majority is one thing, taking full advantage of it is another. Here, as elsewhere in the American system, nothing is simple and it is necessary to constantly seek compromises.
The rule around which discussions often stumble is that of systematic obstruction, commonly called filibuster. Even when a party has a majority, in some cases it is necessary to obtain the consent of 60 senators to call for a vote.
As Mitch McConnell now leads a minority, he insists that Chuck Schumer assure him that he will protect the possibility of obstruction. You should know that the Democrat could abolish the practice of filibuster with a simple majority.
It’s all very technical, but crucial. Why doesn’t Schumer use his new majority to stop Republicans from filibustering? First of all because he knows that his majority could disappear in 2022 and that he would then need the filibuster to counterbalance McConnell. He cannot be satisfied with governing with his nose glued to the window.
Secondly, the Democratic leader is aware that some Democratic senators, representing more conservative constituencies, do not want overly progressive measures to be adopted. Schumer thus spares their sensibilities and expects in return that these senators support him on the files which he will privilege.
We must also not forget that Joe Biden reached out to the Republicans, to whom he is sending a unifying message, as the country is going through major crises. Supporting the removal of parliamentary obstruction would send the opposite message. One can also suspect that Biden takes the opportunity to send a message to the more progressive elements of his political formation.
Ultimately, Chuck Schumer can afford to wait for a counterpart from McConnell. What can the Republican offer in return for a compromise on the filibuster? We should find out soon. The Republican leader still measures his support for the impeachment of Donald Trump, just as he measures his support for the new budget measures.
At the time of writing, McConnell appears to have caved in on the question of parliamentary obstruction as two Democratic senators edged out Chuck Schumer and announced they would oppose the end of the filibuster. You might think the Republicans are winning, but that would be wrong.
By not commenting on parliamentary obstruction, Chuck Schumer has promised nothing to Mitch McConnell who, for his part, now agrees to negotiate without a firm commitment from the Democratic leader. Schumer therefore keeps a card up his sleeve, a threat he can always wield if the Republican consistently refuses to negotiate.
I regularly explain that American democracy is particularly complex, a gigantic liner that cannot be changed quickly. You have to put in the time and energy, too often obtaining mixed results.
We must never forget that the whole mechanism of American institutions is based on the notion of compromise. By preserving for the moment the filibuster, Schumer, McConnell and Biden recognize this reality and protect what remains of balance within institutions.
The radical or extreme positions of the two political parties will have to break down or contribute to marginalizing themselves by relying on brilliant gestures. Contrary to what is often said, the system is not paralyzed, it moves very slowly. Too much? Stay tuned!