Under a favorable scenario for the next three to four months, the national currency rate can strengthen to 70 rubles / $ and 84 rubles / €, said analysts interviewed by Izvestia. But admittedly, this option is unlikely – there are now too many uncertainties both in Russia and abroad, which at any time can play against the domestic currency. The pressure on the ruble may be exerted by falling oil prices, the introduction of new sanctions by the West due to the aggravation of the geopolitical situation, the second wave of the pandemic and the presidential elections in the United States. If these risks are realized to some extent, then the dollar may rise in price up to 80 rubles, and the euro – up to 92, experts predict. Wherein Analysts believe that the fair value of the national currency exchange rate without external negative factors is the levels of 73 rubles / $ and 85 rubles / €…
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At risk
On September 3, the dollar rose to 75.85 rubles, and the euro – to 89.58 rubles. Thus, September continues the August trendwhen the national currency was stressed from different angles, which led to high volatility. Although the exchange rate was moving in jumps, the ruble only weakened. Over the past month, its value has decreased by 3% against the dollar and by 3.4% against the euro.
Traditionally the value of the Russian currency is influenced by economic factors, primarily the price of oil… On Thursday, a barrel of Brent was worth about $ 44, Bloomberg data shows. Although this is better than the April values, when quotes fell to $ 20, the level of last year – $ 60-68 / barrel is still far away.
The price is capable of falling again to $ 40-42 after the end of hurricanes in the oil-bearing Gulf of Mexico, said Mark Goikhman, chief analyst at TeleTrade. And according to the forecasts of the IEA and OPEC, the demand for “black gold” will not reach the level of last year, even next year, while the supply will only grow, he added.
The possibility of a second wave of COVID-19 is also weighing on the ruble. The consequences of the pandemic are not fully understood, since they have a cumulative effect, and the global economy is just beginning to feel a break in supply chains., commented the head of the analytical department of AMarkets Artem Deev. The second wave could trigger a sell-off in the emerging market asset market in the same way it did in March, he warned.
On the other hand, the current policy of the Federal Reserve has played into the hands of emerging markets, recalled Mark Goykhman from TeleTrade. The US Central Bank made it clear that it will keep rates low for a long time, which means that loans around the world will remain cheap. This has no direct significance for the Russian currency, he explained, but it keeps oil prices at a fairly high level, and also contributes to some weakening of the dollar.
Uncertainty is worse
In addition to economic stress, the ruble has come under political pressure. It is geopolitical unrest and fears of sanctions against Russia that now have the greatest impact on the dollar-ruble exchange rate, said Vitaly Gromadin, senior analyst at BCS. This is happening against the backdrop of the confrontation in Belarus and the accusatory rhetoric of German Chancellor Angela Merkel over the situation with Alexei Navalny.
In order to impose sanctions due to the alleged poisoning of a blogger, you first need to prove Russia’s involvement in this, so something else could be the reason for imposing restrictions, said Ilya Zaporozhsky, an expert at the Academy of Finance and Investment Management.
– The sanctions themselves are not so terrible as the spiral of multiple retaliatory measures and the uncertainty to which such a situation leads. Any additional negative comments from Western leaders could worsen the ruble’s plight, – said Ilya Zaporozhsky.
When the restrictions were introduced due to the unrest in Ukraine, their impact on the ruble was much less noticeable than the effect of the fall in oil prices towards the end of 2014, recalled Vitaliy Gromadin from BCS. therefore the uncertainty is more frightening now, but it is possible that the negative effect on the economy will be significant, he suggested.
The likelihood of applying “hellish sanctions” increaseswhich have been discussed by the US Congress since December 2019, said Mark Goikhman of TeleTrade. In his opinion, we can talk, for example, about a ban on investments in Russian OFZs for foreign investors and the blocking of correspondent accounts of large Russian banks in the United States.
Nor should you underestimate the role of the upcoming presidential election in America., which will take place on November 3, warned Ilya Zaporozhsky. The victory of Joe Biden and the Democrats with their anti-Russian rhetoric will be a blow not only to the ruble, but also to the US market, since this party has plans to increase taxes on large corporations and people with high incomes. Falling prices for US assets will drag developing markets with it, he added.
The ruble is under pressure, and the situation is unlikely to change before the new year, analysts agreed in their forecast. If events develop according to a negative scenario, then by the end of 2020 we will see the dollar more expensive than 80 rubles, and the euro will step to the level of 90-92 rubles.
The likelihood of a favorable scenario also remains, although it is small… For its implementation, the absence of new sanctions, a recovery in oil demand, an increase in oil prices to $ 50 per barrel, the absence of a second wave of a pandemic and a recovery in the world economy, said Artyom Deev from AMarkets. The fair value of the national currency exchange rate without external negative factors is now 73 rubles for the dollar and 85 for the euro.
Unlike the dollar and the euro, the ruble retains a positive yield, the Russian budget does not need quantitative easing, and international reserves are one third higher than total external liabilities, recalled the leading analyst at Otkritie Broker Andrey Kochetkov.
If a favorable forecast is realized, the exchange rate may be 70-72 rubles / $ and 84-85 rubles / €.