By the end of 2020, deliveries of Russian soybeans to foreign markets may increase by more than 70% compared to last year’s export volumes and exceed 1.5 million tons. This information follows from the forecast of the Center for Industry Expertise of the Russian Agricultural Bank, which was received by Izvestia on Thursday. November 12.
“The export of soybeans is mainly provided by the growing demand from China and Belarus, which remain the main consumers of this oilseed crop for Russia. In total, these countries account for more than 70% of all foreign supplies of Russian soybeans, ”the words of Andrey Dalnov, head of the Bank’s Industry Expertise Center, are quoted in the forecast.
According to the center, the Chinese market accounts for more than 50% of all Russian soybean exports. Due to the restoration of the pig population, the PRC continues to actively purchase soybeans. In the marketing season, which began in September 2020, imports of soybeans may increase by another 3% by the 2019/2020 season and reach a record level of 100 million tons.
“The share of Russia in the total volume of Chinese imports is still small, within 1%. Nevertheless, the factor of the growing demand for soybeans from China will affect the dynamics of prices in the world market and in Russia, ”Dalnov said.
According to the World Bank, the world price for soybeans this year will grow by 5% to $ 390 per tonne and will strengthen by another 3% to $ 400 per tonne next year. It follows from this that this year the average price on the Russian market for this agricultural crop may reach 30 thousand rubles per ton, and in 2021 it will increase by another 5-10%.
The study also mentions an increase in the supply of Russian soybeans to Belarus, which is the second largest importer of this crop from Russia. It is explained by the increase in oilseed processing capacities in the republic. Part of the processed products returns to the Russian market in the form of soybean meal and is used later in the production of animal feed.
At the same time, the Center for Industry Expertise notes that in the future, domestic companies may compete with Belarusian processors. A number of investment projects have already been announced in the Central Federal District to expand existing and create new soybean processing facilities with a total increase of 2.5 million tons to 3.8 million tons per year.
According to Dalnov, the need for new projects in raw materials can lead to a redistribution of a part of export volumes in favor of Russian processors and further stimulate an increase in the production of soybeans in the European part of the country.
By the end of 2020, the production of soybeans in Russia is projected at 4.2 million tons. Compared to the record level in 2019, production should decrease by 4-5% due to a reduction in acreage.
The sown area of soybeans is located in the regions of the Far Eastern and Central Federal Districts. The Amur Region is in the lead – 30%. Approximately 9% each falls on the Primorsky Territory, Belgorod and Kursk regions. 5-6% of crops are in the Voronezh and Tambov regions, Krasnodar and Altai regions.
The regions of the Far Eastern Federal District and the Siberian Federal District traditionally specialize in the supply of soybeans to China. Regions of the European part of Russia supply soybeans to Belarus, the countries of the Middle East and Kazakhstan.
In July, the Russian Ministry of Agriculture provided subsidies to the regions to stimulate an increase in soybean and rapeseed production. The Lipetsk region received 80.6 million rubles from the federal budget for these purposes. Another 4.2 million rubles were allocated from the regional treasury.