For Republicans in Trumpier states, such as Kansas and Iowa, this fight may prove useful, consolidating and energizing base voters who might have otherwise stayed home. Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia, desperate to tie herself to the president, rushed to issue a fund-raising appeal on Friday night, declaring herself “the first U.S. senator to call for a nomination.”
Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina may gain the most. An ardent presidential bootlicker, he has been locked in a surprisingly tight race with Jaime Harrison, a Democrat. As the chairman of the judiciary committee, Mr. Graham will lead the confirmation process, which he believes should advance post haste. This is, to put it mildly, a departure from his position four years ago.
“If there’s a Republican president in 2016 and a vacancy occurs in the last year of the first term, you can say Lindsey Graham said, ‘Let’s let the next president, whoever it might be, make that nomination,’” he said in a video clip that resurfaced last week. “And you can use my words against me, and you’d be absolutely right.” (He reiterated this take in 2018.)
Some South Carolinians may do just that. But Mr. Graham’s high-profile role in the coming hearings is expected to give his candidacy a much-needed shot of adrenaline with the base.
In purplish North Carolina, Senator Thom Tillis, one of the most endangered Republicans, was quick to declare his eagerness to confirm a nominee. This might win him more love from religious conservatives; it could also prompt more suburban women and young voters to turn out for his opponent, Cal Cunningham.
Then there’s Arizona, where a relatively stable race has become a locus of drama. Mark Kelly, a Democrat, has been running solidly ahead of Senator Martha McSally for months, and the state is considered one of the Democrats’ top pickup opportunities. But because the race is a special election — Ms. McSally was appointed by the governor in December 2018 after losing her bid for the state’s other Senate seat — the winner could be seated at the end of November. If Mr. Kelly won and were seated early, and if the confirmation vote were postponed until the lame-duck session, that would give Democrats one more “no.”
That’s a lot of “ifs,” but this should give some sense of the nightmare of trying to game out the political impact of all this.