I am not the first to mention the name of the great Greek historian Thucydides when observing and commenting on the state of relations between China and the United States. Graham Allison, researcher and associate professor emeritus at Harvard University, has published an authoritative text on the subject.(1)
As the meeting between the Chinese and American representatives begins in Alaska, the tensions are such that we feel the need to recall the famous “trap” mentioned by Thucydides in his explanation of the conflict between Athens and Sparta. At IVe century BC, the historian argues that one of the major causes of what has been called the Peloponnesian War lies in the fear of an established power, Sparta, of seeing an emerging power, Athens, supplant it.
Are China and the United States irreparably heading towards armed conflict? While this possibility cannot be dismissed out of hand in the medium or long term, there are still many tussles in prospect and many options on the table. If the verbal attacks to which the two parties engaged yesterday were not very reassuring, we should not immediately perceive a major escalation or a point of no return.
Donald Trump’s departure partly explains the show we were treated to on Thursday. We study a little more before establishing a list of priorities and, if the other party is not unknown to us, we take the measure of its determination and the most important issues.
If the representatives of the American government vociferated the usual reproaches against the Chinese leaders, by insisting on the democratic deficit and the non-respect of human rights, this first salvo was essentially emotional. The United States is expected to promote its values and democracy, but I believe that progress can only be made if we take a more pragmatic position.
While waiting to identify more clearly the strategic issues favored by the Biden administration, we observe that the new president stands out from his predecessor by refusing to isolate his country.
The Asia-Pacific zone is of capital importance in the repositioning of powers. The new American administration is renewing ties there with multiple partners such as South Korea, India, Japan and Australia, because the United States no longer has the means to impose itself on its own.
If the United States finds itself in the position of ancient Sparta, it is as much because of the progression and evolution of actors like China as because, more recently, a leadership to which the predecessors has been abandoned. of Donald Trump were still hanging on.
In the coming weeks and months, we will learn more about the ability of Americans to resume a leadership role on the international stage, as we will see a little more clearly in what will be prioritized to adjust to growth. and the influence of China.
Will we be able to avoid Thucydides’ trap? We have to hope so and I believe we will get there. For better or for worse, the two powers still need each other. The worst will be avoided in the short term, but we cannot be satisfied with this perspective alone. The United States needs a new strategy for the medium and long term, and it is lagging far behind its main rival.
1. Graham Allison, Destined for War: Can the United States and China Escape Thucydides’s Trap ?, Boston, Houghton Mifflin Harcourt, 2017