Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has been maneuvering to elect on Monday at the head of the two chambers of Parliament men who allow him to rule out impeachment and be reelected in 2022, but he risks paying dearly for political support that he received.
In Brazil, the presidents of the Chamber of Deputies and of the Senate determine the laws to be voted on. Moreover, it is up to the head of the lower house to decide on the admissibility of complaints of “impeachment”, of dismissal.
Erratic handling of the coronavirus pandemic, which has claimed nearly 225,000 lives in Brazil, has eroded the far-right president’s popularity. His approval rate rose from 37% in December to 31% in January, while that of his rejection rose from 32% to 40%, according to the Datafolha institute.
The Chamber of Deputies has received 61 requests for “impeachment” from Jair Bolsonaro and demonstrations are now taking place in the country for his departure, including from right-wing groups who supported him when he came to power there. more than two years.
“I will stay in this chair until the end of 2022,” Bolsonaro assured Wednesday, brushing aside the threat of impeachment.
The Brazilian economy, already anemic, is hit by the pandemic and the markets do not want the resumption of emergency aid payments which in 2020 enabled 68 million poor people to keep their heads above water, but also emptied the boxes even more.
On the contrary, pressure is increasing on Jair Bolsonaro to revive reforms and privatizations.
And for all this, he needs the support of the Speakers of the House and the Senate, who will be elected in a session starting Monday at the end of the day.
“Old school politics”
After being affiliated with a myriad of parties in his 28 years in office, Jair Bolsonaro came to power under the banner of the tiny (right-wing) PSL, which he ultimately left. He finds himself without a party.
During his campaign, he had promised to put an end to corruption and the practices of “old-fashioned politics”, such as “toma là, dà cà” (take that, give me this), the support of elected to Parliament in exchange for government or administrative posts in particular.
But Jair Bolsonaro has drawn closer to the “centrao”, a heterogeneous group of conservative parties that have dominated political life for decades, and negotiate their votes according to the circumstances and the advantages they can derive from them.
In the Chamber of Deputies, Bolsonaro supports Arthur Lira, of the Progressive Party (PP, right). Among other gifts, he dangled three portfolios at the “centrao”, notably at Culture, which would find a ministry.
Lira’s main opponent is Baleia Rossi, of the Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB), which has allied itself with almost every government of the left or the right since the end of the military dictatorship in 1985.
Mr. Rossi is supported by the outgoing Speaker of the House, Rodrigo Maia, of the DEM party (center-right), who opposes the ultra-conservative and notably evangelical religious lobbies that Bolsonaro will need again to be elected.
“The government is desperately trying to seize the presidency of the House, to (prevent the implementation of) environmental protection policies, to liberalize arms sales,” Maia quipped in December. .
At the head of the Senate, Jair Bolsonaro supports Rodrigo Pacheco (DEM), which is also supported by the Workers’ Party (PT, left) of ex-president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. His main rival is Simone Tebet of MDB (center right).
“Hostage of the” centrao “”
Jair Bolsonaro will not have much leeway even “if his candidates win,” Thiago Vidal, analyst at Prospectiva, told AFP.
Because “the” centrao “remains faithful only if the conditions are met. And today they are not, with a very fragile economy and Bolsonaro’s popularity on the decline. His government will remain hostage “to the” centrao “, he predicts.
Sylvio Costa, director of Congresso em Foco, does not think that the victory of “his” candidates will save the president.
“The ‘centrao’ charges dearly for its support and that poses more problems for the advancement of the legislative calendar,” he explains.