The election of Joe Biden to the US presidential election is a blow to Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, often nicknamed the “Trump of the tropics”, who finds himself isolated after having supported the outgoing president to the end.
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The silence of Jair Bolsonaro, one of the few leaders of a large country who still had not reacted to the election of Joe Biden on Saturday night, was eloquent.
The rise of the far-right leader, who came to power in January 2019 and who hopes to be re-elected in 2022, has been modeled on that of his model Donald Trump.
Even if he had already been a member of Parliament for about thirty years, while his American counterpart was a neophyte in politics, Jair Bolsonaro made like him an untimely use of social networks, with a provocative style and numerous slippages.
What to seduce a conservative electorate wishing a return of moral order in a country undermined by corruption.
A 65-year-old former army captain, the Brazilian president has continued to cultivate a close relationship with the Trump administration, breaking with the tradition of multilateralism in his country’s diplomacy. Even if it means not really being paid in return by Washington for this allegiance.
In the aftermath of the first presidential debate in the United States, a month ago, Jair Bolsonaro was off the hook when Biden threatened Brazil with economic sanctions because of deforestation in the Amazon, deeming that his “disastrous” words threatened ” cordial relations ”between the two countries.
“What a shame, Mr. John Biden,” he tweeted in English, mistaking the first name of Barack Obama’s former vice president.
Enough to foresee turbulence in the relationship with a Biden administration which hopes to restore the image of the United States within the international community, by advocating in particular an environmental policy diametrically opposed to that of Trump.
A sensitive subject for climate skeptic Jair Bolsonaro as deforestation and fires in the Amazon have increased sharply since the start of his mandate.
And Trump’s departure will make Bolsonaro the most visible face of the new hard right which has gained ground in recent years around the world.
“Trump’s defeat weakens Bolsonaro, makes him look more isolated. There will be more negative looks on Bolsonaro, who will become the face of a certain type of right, ”said Brian Winter, vice-president of the Council of the Americas (AS / COA), a trade promotion organization.
“This will bring even more attention to the problems in the Amazon, in part because the US president is talking about it. Basically, Bolsonaro could become the big bogeyman in the world for a part of the public opinion, ”he adds.
And even if Bolsonaro decides to ignore Biden’s criticisms, many economic sectors in Brazil could pay the price.
“If Brazil becomes an outcast, it’s bad for business, and this country cannot afford it, given its economic situation,” continues Brian Winter.
Latin America’s largest economy has been struggling for several years and is expected to experience a record recession due to the coronavirus crisis.
For Paulo Sotero, of the Wilson Center in Washington, Jair Bolsonaro has an interest in being more pragmatic in seeking to have good relations with the Biden administration.
“He will have a lot of work to establish a dialogue and he should hasten to change some members of his bodyguard”, including the very controversial Minister of the Environment Ricardo Salles, adds Mr. Sotero.
But Joe Biden also has every interest in keeping Brazil as a valuable regional ally, known for its intransigence vis-à-vis the socialist regime of Nicolas Maduro in Venezuela.
Brazil is also an important player in international trade and exports massively to China, its main trading partner, its soybeans, meat and iron ore.
Next year, the Brazilian government is due to organize tenders for the 5G network in the first half of 2021. The Trump administration has lobbied hard for Brasilia to dismiss the Chinese group Huawei.