Quito | Ecuador, faced with a crisis aggravated by the pandemic, votes Sunday for a presidential election that opposes a left-wing economist and a conservative ex-banker, in the notable absence of ex-President Rafael Correa, installed in Belgium and convicted for corruption.
Sixteen candidates, a record, are in the running to succeed the unpopular Lenin Moreno, who does not stand for re-election and will end a four-year term on May 24, marked by his break with Correist socialism and by austerity measures.
The outcome of the ballot should be played out between two men, favorites of the polls: the economist Andrés Arauz, 35, dolphin of Rafael Correa, an “unknown” more posed than his charismatic and controversial mentor, and the ex-banker of right Guillermo Lasso, 65, who is running for the third time.
Political scientist Simon Pachano predicts a “very hard” race because of “radically different positions”.
“No more state intervention on the left, no more market on the right, the candidates are at the poles (…) it is worrying because it leads to political polarization”, this analyst told AFP of the Latin American Faculty of Social Sciences (Flacso).
Ecuadorian law prohibits the dissemination of polls in the ten days preceding the election. The last one produced by the Market institute credited Andrés Arauz, of the Union pour l’Esperance alliance (Unes, left), with 32% of the voting intentions against 21% to Guillermo Lasso of the Create opportunities movement (Creo, right) .
Hotly contested second round in sight
An election in the first round seems unlikely, however, with the winner expected to garner half of the votes plus one, or at least 40% with ten points ahead of the next.
At 12% in the same poll, Yaku Perez, third seed, could play a key role. This left-wing environmentalist from the Pachakutik party has been the first indigenous candidate for fifteen years.
It benefits from the popularity of the social uprising of October 2019, which rallied different sectors and swayed the government. The revolt, triggered by a rise in fuel prices provided for in an aid plan from the International Monetary Fund (IMF), resulted in 11 dead and 1,340 injured.
At 51, this lawyer, who pleads for the reconciliation of all Ecuadorians, “can determine a possible second round” on April 11, Franklin Ramirez, another Flacso expert, told AFP.
Market director Blasco Peñaherrera is planning a “hotly contested second round”, preceded, according to analyst Paolo Moncagatta, by “a dirty, violent campaign that will further discredit Ecuadorian politics”, splashed with corruption scandals.
But this political scientist from the private University of San Francisco does not rule out the possibility of a victory in the first round because of a “high percentage of undecided”.
The shadow of the crisis and Correa
The 13 other candidates – including Ximena Peña, the only woman in the presidential election for Alliance Pays (AP), a ruling party weakened by the Moreno-Correa struggle – appear far behind with less than 4% of the voting intentions, or even less than 1% for some people.
Nearly 13.1 of the 17.4 million inhabitants are also called upon to elect the 137 deputies of the unicameral parliament, where the next government should not hold a majority due to the fragmentation of political forces.
The economic crisis is also causing great discontent. Already affected by the fall in the price of oil, the main export product, Ecuador is suffering from the pandemic, which has caused more than $ 6.4 billion in losses. It should show a decrease of 8.9% for 2020.
These elections are held in the absence of Rafael Correa, installed in the country of his Belgian wife since his departure from power. Sentenced last year to eight years in prison for corruption, he was unable to run for vice-president as he expected.
But the ex-president (2007-2017) is omnipresent, even on posters alongside Andrés Arauz. And his hostility with his former ally Lenin Moreno, whom he describes as a “traitor”, also permeates the countryside, deprived of meetings because of the Covid-19.
In addition to the uncertainty of the first round, the polls predict a significant abstention. If in Ecuador voting is compulsory for those under 65, the fear of the coronavirus, which has already caused some 15,000 deaths, may weigh heavily.