“It’s like a fight in the ring. Same kind of thing, a little less physical, barely … “
As his first debate on Tuesday against Joe Biden approaches, Donald Trump plays the show and provocation card, spinning, amused, the metaphor with Mixed Martial Arts (MMA).
But 35 days before the November 3 election, the sometimes contradictory and rough messages from the American president, 74, could play tricks on him against his Democratic opponent, 77.
His strength? Its ability to break the codes, impose its own rules.
As in the exercise of power, he intends in debate to free himself from the traditions that have gradually imposed themselves in this exercise since the first presidential face-to-face organized 60 years ago, in Chicago, between John F Kennedy and Richard Nixon.
“He is a debater apart, there is no real recipe for confronting him,” Aaron Kall, professor at the University of Michigan and author of a book entitled “Debating The Donald, told AFP. “.
Change of tone
The 45e President of the story loves the spotlight and the stage but is used to taking his place alone, as in his campaign meetings where he occupies, with real talent, all the space.
The former reality TV host has participated in 14 political debates in his life: eleven during the Republican primaries in 2015/2016, and three against Hillary Clinton.
Lagging behind in the polls against Joe Biden, he cannot miss Tuesday night’s meeting. But he put himself in an awkward position.
Personal attacks of rare violence in support, he has mocked for months the physical and mental state of health of his democratic opponent, presented as a little old man a little lost, manipulated by his entourage and “the radical left”.
“Joe asleep doesn’t even know where he is or what he’s doing.” “He doesn’t even know he’s alive …”
In recent days, however, he has changed his tone and strategy. As if he had suddenly remembered that debate is a game where everything is judged above all in relation to expectations.
But one of the reasons why he crossed the obstacle so well five years ago in the Republican primaries was that he set the bar very low, insisting that he was a newbie in politics against to seasoned governors and senators.
In recent days, he has therefore attempted a spectacular 180 degree turn.
“The one who is the favorite is Sleepy Joe,” he said earlier this week. “I’m the one who is inexperienced, I’ve only been doing this for a few years, he’s been in the arena for over 47 years.”
Lack of training?
Another obstacle for the former New York businessman: the first debate is always a trap for the outgoing president, installed for four years in the bubble of the White House.
In Washington, everyone has in mind the poor performance of Barack Obama on October 3, 2012, against his Republican opponent Mitt Romney.
Tense, tired, his eyes riveted on his notes, he had often become entangled in long, tortuous answers.
Similar examples are not lacking. Jimmy Carter against Ronald Reagan in 1980, George HW Bush against Bill Clinton in 1992: many presidents seeking a second term have fought poorly.
“They often lack training, they have not always had time to prepare (…) and they have around them a lot of sycophants and people who hesitate to contradict them”, advance Aaron Kall.
Donald Trump could, in fact, be less seasoned than his opponent.
His last debate dates back to October 2016. Joe Biden took part in eleven debates between June 2019 and March 2020, the last of which was against left-wing senator Bernie Sanders, a formidable opponent.
Also remains a major question for “DJT”: how will the former Democratic vice-president react?
While the dynamics will be different in many ways, the 2016 precedent will be on everyone’s mind.
In a book published after her defeat in the fall of 2017, Hillary Clinton returned to her second debate against Donald Trump, in Saint-Louis in October 2016.
“He followed me wherever I went, he stared at me, he grimaced. It was incredibly embarrassing. He literally blew my neck out, ”she wrote. “I had goose bumps.”
What to do in these circumstances? Keep your cool, stay “calm, smile” or turn around, look him in the eye and say, “Stand back, you bad guy, walk away”.
The former Democratic candidate says she chose the first option. While stressing that she often wonders if she should not have opted for the second.