What exactly can a giant like the United States fear? What can a military budget as large as that of the ten other top spending countries combined fail to accomplish? The American intelligence services have an imagination, believe me.
Once a year, to prevent myself from sleeping at night, I read the portrait that American spy and counter-espionage agencies draw of the threats that threaten the world. Nightmares guaranteed this year again!
The United States, according to the recent “Threat Assessment Report” published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, has four great enemies and two monstrous adversaries.
First, there are the Russians who “continue to employ a variety of tactics to undermine American influence,” but fortunately do not seek a military face-to-face with the Americans.
We must, moreover, be wary of the Iranians, according to American spies and analysts, even if their economy is deteriorating and they have rather bad press in the Middle East. They will “continue to take risks which could lead to an escalation of tensions with the allies of the United States in the region”, Israel and Saudi Arabia not to name them.
The bomb, always her
Hopefully, however, the report concludes that Iran has yet to undertake the activities necessary for the production of nuclear weapons. Phew! North Koreans, too, must be watched closely.
Relatively quiet since the end of 2019, Kim Jong-un could choose to launch North Korea in aggressive and destabilizing actions, his objective remaining “to gain prestige, security and acceptance as a nuclear power”.
The most worrying portion of the analysis relates to China, described, unlike others, as a “near equal competitor”. In addition to challenging Washington economically, militarily and technologically, “Beijing is pursuing the fastest expansion and diversification of its nuclear arsenal in its history.”
And unlike Russia, China shows no interest in arms control agreements that would restrict its modernization plans. In other words, the Chinese are persisting, which does not bode well, according to American experts.
Between winds and viruses
Two other, more complex and potentially more devastating rivals have crept into the 2021 Big Threat Report: COVID-19 and the climate. Even if we foresee, thanks to vaccination, a health victory, the economic consequences of the pandemic “will create or worsen instability in several countries with populations even more desperate”. The implications, it is believed, will be felt around the world for years to come.
Finally, climatic upheavals and environmental degradation due to pollution will generate a chain of social unrest. Inspired by the hurricanes that swept through Central America in 2020 after years of alternating between drought and storms, analysts see increasingly strong migrations, increasingly serious humanitarian crises and increasing risks. in addition to real radicalization of these destitute.
What, I warned you, waking up at night sweaty.
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The United States spends as much on defense budgets as the following ten countries combined
United States under threats
“The Chinese Communist Party will continue its efforts to increase China’s influence, undermine that of the United States, divide Washington and its allies, and promote new international standards that favor the Chinese authoritarian system. “
“We believe that Moscow will use influence campaigns, espionage, mercenary operations, assassinations and arms sales to advance its interests or undermine the interests of the United States and its allies. “
“Iran’s expertise and willingness to conduct aggressive cyber operations make it a significant threat to the security of US and allied data networks. “
“North Korea will pose a threat of weapons of mass destruction for the foreseeable future, as Kim Jong-un remains firmly committed to the country’s nuclear weapons. “