Treat, student: second wave of COVID-19 could start from universities

Russian scientists predict a second wave of coronavirus in September, linking it to the start of the school year. First of all, we are talking about the return of nonresident students to megacities, who can bring SARS-CoV-2 to Moscow and St. Petersburg. In this regard, a two-week quarantine may be required for students arriving in the capital, especially from regions with an unfavorable epidemiological situation, experts told Izvestia. Also, in their opinion, it is worth introducing mandatory testing for infection. If these measures prove insufficient, a return to online training is possible.

Risk group

The number of patients with COVID-19 can significantly increase with the beginning of studies in universities, when students from other cities return to megacities. According to forecasts made at Peter the Great St. Petersburg Polytechnic University (SPbPU) using mathematical modeling methods, by September 10-14 (after the pathogen’s incubation period), the number of infected in Moscow and St. Petersburg may increase by 15-20%.

“In my opinion, it is necessary that all nonresident students, when arriving, undergo compulsory testing or, as a stricter measure, a two-week quarantine,” Aleksey Borovkov, Vice-Rector for Promising Projects of SPbPU, Co-Head of the Tekhnet Working Group of the National Technology Initiative, told Izvestia …

The scientist also noted that the second wave, provoked at the beginning of the school year, will not be as massive as the first one observed in March. However, the measures for its prevention must be taken into account by the heads of higher educational institutions. Moreover, the dangerous epidemiological situation in universities will strike first of all at their own employees.

– A large number of teachers at universities are at risk: they are over 65 years old, and we will increase the likelihood of losing a significant group of teachers if we do not take any measures and start the school year as usual – with lectures in streaming classrooms, practical and laboratory sessions that involve intensive communication, – said Alexey Borovkov.

Therefore, it may be worthwhile for universities to keep the online format of education in the case of older teachers.

Tests every two days

Foreign experts also speak about the risks of spreading coronavirus infection at universities. Earlier, scientists from the Yale School of Public Health published a preprint of the article describing the SARS-CoV-2 screening performance standards to ensure the safe return of students to campuses during the fall 2020 semester. Mathematician David Paltiel and colleagues have modeled the effect of different testing strategies on the number of confirmed cases that 5,000 students might have over an 80-day semester.

In one scenario, the researchers estimated that five new infections would occur every week. In this scenario, one infected student will infect 2.5 others. It is assumed that after positive tests for coronavirus, all infected will be isolated. The team calculated that in order to maintain a minimum threshold of infection (about 135 cases per semester), it is not enough to test each student on a weekly basis. To safely open residential campuses, universities may have to screen everyone for COVID-19 every two days. This will cost approximately $ 470 per student.

If the transmission rate is higher, daily testing will be required, which will double the cost.

Contain the threat

Along with the mandatory general measures – physical distancing, hygiene, masks, isolation of infected people and tracing their contacts – testing will really help a lot., Skoltech professor and virologist Yegor Bazykin told Izvestia.

– Now it is being discussed how often it should be done for students living in a hostel. It depends on many things: the epidemic situation, the size of the dormitory and the cost of testing. Mathematical models show that frequent testing will help keep the situation under control, even if the test is not 100% effective, the expert emphasized.

According to Yegor Bazykin, now the epidemic continues throughout Russia and the movement of people between regions will have little effect. The main problem is not connected with the fact of arrival of nonresident students, but with the fact that with the beginning of full-time education the number of contacts increases sharply.

– According to modern data, children over 10 years of age transmit the virus as easily as adults. Therefore, the hope that teenagers do not infect anyone was not confirmed. Infections will occur. We need to include this in our plans. The virus does not ask for a diploma, so both students and teachers will be infected, – said Yegor Bazykin.

Stanislav Otstavnov, Deputy Head of the Laboratory for Analysis of Population Health Indicators and Digitalization of Healthcare at MIPT (the university is a participant in the 5-100 Education Competitiveness Project), explained that On the whole, universities showed a fairly prompt and adequate response to existing threats and already in March – early April switched to distance learning, transferring the maximum possible number of educational courses online.

Escape online

– The experience we have gained from the online emergency translation is quite substantial. And if in September there is an urgent need to switch to these tracks again, it will be much easier to do it, – the scientist explained. – Depending on the epidemiological situation, a two-week quarantine may be required for those arriving from other regions, primarily with an unfavorable situation. Testing students, as well as thermometry at the entrance to the premises, unfortunately, will not serve as a 100% guarantee that the infection will not spread. The option of limiting the places of stay of students to the campus territory is also not entirely feasible, because not all universities have a full-fledged campus.

Rospotrebnadzor Izvestia, when asked about a possible 20 percent increase in the number of infected people in September, replied that the incidence of COVID-19 is expected to rise in autumn, but not by September 10-14, but due to the seasonal increase in SARS.

– Compared with the spring (April-May), then there should not be such a level of incidence of coronavirus infection, since collective immunity to the new coronavirus is gradually being formed, – said the director of the St.Petersburg Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology named after V. Pasteur of Rospotrebnadzor Areg Totolyan. – As of June in Moscow and St. Petersburg, the proportion of the population with antibodies to the SARS-CoV-2 virus has already reached 26%, and we can expect that by the beginning of the school year the level of the immune layer will be even higher. It is also important to take into account that the maximum indicators of herd immunity are established among children of preschool and school age, which inspires even more optimism about how the beginning of the school year will go.

However, it is not yet possible to predict what the contribution of coronavirus infection will be to the seasonal rise in incidence, says Antonina Ploskireva, deputy director of the Research Institute of Epidemiology of Rospotrebnadzor.

– In the southern hemisphere, where it is winter, there is a seasonal rise in the incidence of acute respiratory infections and influenza. It should be noted that due to the implementation of anti-epidemic measures against coronavirus infection, the incidence of influenza and other acute respiratory infections is lower than in previous years. It is not yet possible to say exactly what we will have in September. Most realistically, we can only forecast for the short term – 7-10 days ahead. It is now clear that the situation in Russia is characterized by a decrease in morbidity. There is currently no data on the deterioration of the epidemiological situation, – Antonina Ploskireva is sure.

Recommendations and measures

Rospotrebnadzor stressed that guidelines for preventing an increase in the number of cases of new coronavirus infection have been issued.

When drawing up the schedule, it is necessary to provide for the intervals between the beginning of classes and breaks in groups so as to minimize the possibility and duration of contacts between students (students) of different groups. At the entrance to buildings, areas for hand disinfecting and thermometry using non-contact devices should be organized. Plus, regular disinfection of the rooms where students are located using sanitizers and air disinfection devices. Students and staff with signs of a respiratory infection should not be allowed to classes, and if they are detected during the school day, the sick should be immediately isolated.

Earlier, the Ministry of Education and Science said that they are preparing for the standard start of the school year, but other options are also possible. So, the department noted that universities can independently postpone the beginning of the academic year up to two months if the situation with coronavirus in the region does not allow starting classes earlier.

When asked by Izvestia, the Ministry of Higher Education and Science replied that there are currently different points of view on the possible development of the situation with the incidence of coronavirus. But the likelihood of an increase in the number of infected by the fall exists. Especially in case of non-observance of generally accepted measures for the prevention and prevention of disease.