The world at the end of the tunnel: why the opposition returned to the Georgian parliament

Part of the Georgian opposition ended a six-month boycott and returned to parliament. The main reason for the political reconciliation was the position of the European Union, whose representatives pushed the ruling party and its opponents to compromise. At the same time, the largest opposition group – the United National Movement of Mikhail Saakashvili – continues to boycott the parliament. Saakashvili himself promises to return to his homeland in the fall. Izvestia understood the situation.

We will remember everyone

Part of the Georgian opposition ended a six-month boycott and returned to parliament. 13 deputies from the parties “European Georgia”, “Lelo for Georgia”, “Girchi”, “Strategy of the Builder” and two “republicans” have started to work in the legislative body. The first meeting with their participation was held on April 27. “The agreement that we signed and for the implementation of which we came here today is indeed the path to the European future of Georgia. We hope that all the points of the agreement, as well as its spirit, will be respected by the Georgian authorities, ”MP Salome Samadashvili said.

Wherein the largest opposition party, the United National Movement (UNM) of Mikhail Saakashvili, continues to boycott the parliament… The association’s activists also continue to protest in a tent city set up near the parliament building. On April 27, supporters of the UNM attacked the deputies at the entrance to the Legislative Assembly. To the “traitors” who had reached an agreement with the authorities, they shouted “Why did you leave us?”, “Slaves!”, “We will remember everyone.” The police had to calm down the disaffected.

At the first joint meeting, the deputies by a majority vote elected a new chairman of parliament… It was the representative of the ruling Georgian Dream party (GM) Kakhaber Kuchava. In addition, lawmakers had time to argue about the political crisis. Representative of GM Shalva Papuashvili said that, upon returning to parliament, the opposition admitted defeat. Deputy Giorgi Vashadze said in response that the authorities, having signed an agreement with the opposition, recognized the problems in the country.

Lord of the bracelets

The political crisis in Georgia began after the October 31 parliamentary elections. Then the ruling party “Georgian Dream” won, having received 90 deputy mandates out of 150. The second place was taken by the opposition bloc “Strength in Unity”, which includes the UNM. In total, seven parties and two blocs entered parliament.

The opposition accused Georgian Dream of falsification and refused to recognize the voting results. Opponents of the ruling party brought their supporters to rallies. In addition, they refused parliamentary mandates. At the same time, the protesters scared the winners with a new revolution… “Protest actions are being prepared. Peaceful, but very tough, who can transform into a revolution, ”said UNM chairman Nika Melia.

In mid-February, the political crisis worsened. Then Melia publicly took off the electronic bracelet that was put on him in 2019 after an attempt to storm parliament. In addition, the politician announced that he refuses to obey the “criminal decisions of the authorities,” including refusing to pay bail. Thereafter The Tbilisi City Court authorized the arrest of the oppositionist.

The court’s decision has rallied the opponents of the Georgian Dream. 20 opposition parties signed a statement of support for Melia and gathered at the UNM office. To arrest the politician, the police had to storm the building. The security forces used ladders and special equipment, sprayed tear gas. Following this Giorgi Gakharia, head of the Georgian government, resigned. “My unshakable position is that the execution of an event determined by legal justice is unacceptable if it is backed by the health and life of our citizens or the possibility of political escalation in the country,” he explained his decision.

Compulsion to a contract

By the end of winter, it seemed that the political crisis had become insoluble. But the fierce political struggle in Georgia did not suit the European Union and the United States… They feared that instability could lead to unexpected actors in power. In addition, Western countries did not want to strengthen the “unpredictable” UNM founder Mikhail Saakashvili.

Even before the new year, under the leadership of the EU and the United States, four rounds of negotiations were held between the Georgian authorities and the opposition. After the new year, the dialogue continued. Contacts, however, were unsuccessful for a long time. In early April, an angry Brussels threatened Tbilisi with sanctions and a deterioration in relations. “The European Parliament, in particular, calls for the suspension of further payments of financial aid to Georgia,” the MEPs said in a statement. Only after these threats did the parties really begin to discuss a possible compromise.

As a result, on April 19, the ruling Georgian Dream party and the opposition approved the agreement, the text of which was proposed by the head of the European Council Charles Michel. The document provides for the release of the co-owner of the opposition TV channel Giorgi Rurua and Nika Melia, whom the opposition considered to be political prisoners. The authorities also pledged to reform the court and the prosecutor general’s office. In addition, if the ruling party gains less than 43% in the upcoming local elections in October this year, early parliamentary elections will be held in 2022.…

Autumn marathon

Experts say that the political crisis has been overcome only formally. “The root causes have not been eliminated. On the one hand, the Georgian society remains split… The active minority supports the UNM, the passive majority supports the Georgian Dream. On the other hand, the special position of opposition… The country is under close scrutiny of the EU and the US, so the authorities cannot react harshly to the speeches of opponents, even if they break the law. The opposition feels impunity and at the same time understands that it is difficult for them to come to power. As a result, the crisis is constantly heating up in order to stay afloat … I would not be surprised if after a while the conflict in the country flares up with renewed vigor“- Nikolai Silaev, a leading researcher at the Center for Caucasus Problems and Regional Security at MGIMO, told Izvestia.

Political analyst Artur Atayev says that the political crisis has been paused, but not overcome. “Local elections will be held in the country in autumn. “Georgian Dream” may receive less than 43%, then early parliamentary elections will be scheduled for 2022. It is clear that the opposition will now work precisely for this scenario. The economic situation in Georgia is difficult, therefore we will see a competition between two populisms – pro-government and opposition. In any case, the return of part of the opposition to parliament does not guarantee a peaceful life for the country.“, – emphasizes the expert.