The Russian currency, like many risky assets, is subject to the traditional seasonal fall in value in May, but this year it may be different. This opinion was expressed on Monday, May 3, by experts interviewed by RIA Novosti.
They believe that the ruble exchange rate may continue to rise, which began at the end of last month. Thus, the Russian currency may even strengthen in May.
Analyst Valery Emelyanov from Freedom Finance told about the existing pattern that during the vacation period from May to October all risky assets acquired by investors from the United States, including stocks and bonds of “emerging” markets, show profitability several times lower than from November to April.
In this regard, most managers and retail players leave them in advance in May, which puts pressure on the ruble, Russian stocks and bonds. According to general statistics, in the entire history of the US market, about 60% of the May sessions showed a loss. The same observations can be made in Russian assets, Yemelyanov noted.
According to him, most likely, the ruble will still rise this May, since the Russian market was oversold in the past months due to sanctions, but now it is returning to normal.
In the absence of an escalation of foreign policy risks, a stable situation with the exchange rate dynamics of the ruble can be expected, said Dmitry Monastyrshin, chief analyst at Promsvyazbank. According to his forecast, the dollar may gain a foothold in the range of 73-75 rubles.
On April 26, it was reported that trading opened with the growth of the ruble against the dollar and the euro. The exchange rate of the American currency for tomorrow was 74.75 rubles, the euro – 90.45 rubles.
Prior to that, on April 23, the Russian national currency reacted with growth to the decision of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation to raise the rate for the second time in a row by 0.5 percentage points. – up to 5% per annum, as well as on the statement of the RF Ministry of Defense on the return of the military, who participated in the exercises in the south of the country, to the bases.
Anna Bodrova, a senior analyst at the Alpari information and analytical center, told Izvestia that the share of the euro in settlements is unlikely to “grow rapidly” in the future, since the eurozone “has its own risks that can be extrapolated to the currency.” At the same time, on average, the share of the European currency can grow by 2-3% per year.