The completion of the preferential mortgage program, as well as an increase in mortgage rates, including due to an increase in the key rate of the Bank of Russia, will lead to a decrease in demand for apartments in new buildings in the Moscow region. The corresponding forecast was published by the search service for housing “Sinitsa” on its Facebook page.
Experts note that the process of “washing out demand” for future periods is already underway.
“A similar effect could be observed in the fall of 2020, when after the decision to extend the preferential mortgage was made, there was a decrease in the number of transactions. This year, most likely, the market will experience a more serious and longer decline, ”- said in the message.
Analysts believe that demand from mortgage buyers is expected to remain high in the second quarter of 2021. A surge in interest is also possible a month and a half before the cancellation of the preferential mortgage program.
According to experts, prices will continue to rise, but less actively than in the first quarter of this year.
They believe that, most likely, developers will try to have time to bring new projects to the market before the end of the preferential mortgage program, so “we can hope for an increase in the activity of developers.”
The catch, according to the service, is that with increased demand, there is still a shortage of supply. 1.63 million square meters are exhibited within the boundaries of old Moscow. m of housing, which is a five-year minimum. In New Moscow, an average of 416 thousand square meters are put up for sale. m. In the Moscow region recorded a decrease in supply, where over the year the share of exhibited apartments in the near zone of the region fell by 36%.
Alexander Shibaev, director of the consulting and analytics department of the Kalinka Group elite real estate agency, told Izvestia that some stabilization of demand is expected in the mass segment after the cancellation of the mortgage subsidy program in Russia.
He agreed that in this regard, “huge demand is expected in the II quarter” before the cancellation of the state program.
“How much demand will decrease will already depend on how banks behave in the matter of mortgage loans. If banks are loyal to the loan rate, then the demand can be smoothed. With a sharp increase in mortgage rates, there will be a decline in demand, ”he added.
Shibaev admitted that, in general, Federal Law No. 214 on participation in the shared construction of apartment buildings and other real estate objects in terms of projection financing “gives many guarantees to banks on the collateral object (future apartment), which makes it possible to slightly reduce average mortgage rates.”
The program to subsidize mortgage interest rates up to 6.5% was launched in April 2020, it was supposed to end on November 1, 2020. At the end of October, the government extended it until July 1, 2021.
On February 15, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed the Cabinet of Ministers, together with the Central Bank, to submit proposals for the implementation of preferential mortgage programs in 2021-2024, considering also the possibility of reducing the interest rate under this program for families with two or more children.
On March 19, for the first time since December 2018, the Central Bank raised its key rate by 0.25 bp. – up to 4.5%. On April 23, the regulator must once again adjust the rate. Experts expect that it may be increased by 0.25-0.50 percentage points.