Political scientists and analysts at the Expert Institute for Social Research (EISI) said that United Russia has every chance of winning a majority in the State Duma, while intrigue about the number of parties in the lower house remains.
“The current rating is not equal to the result that the party will receive in the elections. Even if we measure a week before the vote, then in this case, the result at the polling station will differ from the figures that we see during the current measurements, “said Viktor Poturemsky, Director of Political Analysis at the Institute of Social Marketing, in an interview with Rossiyskaya newspaper ”on Thursday, April 15th.
He added that several factors influence the final result of the elections. For example, 15–20% of undecided citizens come to vote.
However, according to the Public Opinion Foundation (FOM), cited by the head of the scientific council of the Center for Current Politics, Alexei Chesnakov, this category of Russians is about 16%, about the same number are not going to come to the elections at all. The expert emphasized that this circumstance, in turn, is a chance for United Russia, which has a fairly disciplined electorate.
It is noted that if you subtract the undecided and those citizens who will not vote, then the remaining 30-35% of the party’s support is transformed into about 50% according to party lists.
In addition, analysts are talking about a forecast that assumes the victory of “United Russia” in 180-190 single-mandate constituencies.
“As a result – my personal forecast – there will be that very constitutional majority,” said Gleb Kuznetsov, head of the EISI.
Experts also said that the united party “Fair Russia – For the Truth!” can get votes in 10-12 constituencies. This value is one and a half times greater than the forecast of experts on the Communist Party and the Liberal Democratic Party (6-8 districts).
“If last year the majority of sociological institutions made a forecast for” Fair Russia “whether it will be able to overcome the 5% barrier, but now they agree that it is very likely that SR will be able to step over 5%”, – said Poturemsky.
Firdus Aliyev, director of the EISS for interaction with the expert community, emphasized that at present there is an intrigue about the preservation of the current parliamentary quartet of its advantage, as well as the emergence of a possible new party.
According to political scientist Yevgeny Minchenko, in order to achieve success, Yabloko needs to find “its place in the current political situation.” He noted that the result of the “New People” will depend on their bright campaign, while environmental parties can score points on the regional agenda.
The day before, leading Russian experts discussed how the current party ratings can be transformed into concrete results in the form of mandates received in the elections to the State Duma in 2021. Thus, Chesnakov suggested that United Russia would receive 51% of the mandates on the federal list.
On April 7, it became known that about 1.3 thousand people submitted applications for participation in the preliminary voting of United Russia, of which a third (32%) are social activists and volunteers.
A single voting day is set in Russia for September 19, 2021. At the same time, elections to the State Duma of the VIII convocation will be held.