A decrease in the incidence of coronavirus and the abolition of quarantine restrictions in the world can stimulate the demand for risky assets, Artyom Tuzov, executive director of the capital market department at Univer Capital, told Izvestia on January 28. In this case, the ruble may strengthen up to 72-74 against the dollar and up to 90 against the euro, the economist added.
“It is hoped that the mass vaccination will proceed at a faster pace, which will have a positive effect on all processes of the global economy, including supporting the ruble,” said Artem Tuzov.
At the same time, according to him, there is an alternative option for the development of the world economy. Active sanctions rhetoric, the adoption of specific restrictive measures, an intensification of the global recession and a decline in oil prices may lead to the ruble starting to trade at 77–78 in tandem with the dollar and at 93–94 in tandem with the euro, the expert added.
“The fact that pressure on the ruble will increase in the near future was predictable. Investors expected more from the Fed meeting, which took place the day before. The American Central Bank notes the low dynamics of the global economic recovery, the growth of the pandemic, the difficulties with the mass vaccination. Thus, investors’ fears were voiced, which became negative for the markets, ”the economist stressed.
At the opening of trading on the Moscow Exchange on January 28, the dollar exchange rate exceeded 76 rubles for the first time since December 1. The American currency at 11:30 Moscow time was trading at 76.4 rubles. The euro rate on Thursday exceeded 92 rubles for the first time since January 5, reaching 92.4 rubles by 11:30.
On January 5, Mikhail Zeltser, a stock market expert at BCS World of Investments, called the euro the best currency for savings in 2021. The specialist attributed this to the fact that the dynamics of the European economic recovery will be able to support the growth of the exchange rate of this monetary unit.