Hurt was responding to a new analysis from the website FiveThirtyEight.com that gave presumptive Democratic nominee Joe Biden a 71 percent chance at winning in November. Conversely, President Trump was given just a 29 percent chance of reelection.
“If these numbers give you a sense of deja vu,” FiveThirtyEight editor-in-chief Nate Silver wrote Wednesday, “it may be because they’re very similar to our final forecast in 2016 … when Trump also had a 29 percent chance of winning! (And Hillary Clinton had a 71 percent chance.)”
“When you look at a lot of those polls, a lot of those polls, it wound up turning out to be wrong, of course, in 2016,” Hurt said. “But if you look at those of four years ago comparing them to what we’re seeing today, it’s remarkable. It’s uncanny how similar so many of those polls, so many of those models are similar.”
Turning to Joe Biden’s selection of Kamala Harris to be his running mate, Hurt predicted that “today and in the next couple of weeks are going to be when we get a far better feel for where people are in regards to this election.”
He added that many likely voters are not likely to begin paying attention to the election until long after the pundits have chewed over the race thoroughly.
“In a year like this,” he said, “where you have a pandemic, you have an economic collapse, you have this rioting, you have a lot of reasons people are, I think, really not tuning in until a little bit later.”