The completion of the maneuvers in Crimea affected the exchange rate of the Russian currency – the dollar and the euro began to decline a few hours after the order was issued on the return of troops to their places of permanent deployment. Stock market analysts attribute this to a decrease in geopolitical risks, and some are confident that further strengthening of the ruble can be expected in the future.
On April 22, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said that the personnel of the Southern Military District and the airborne troops involved in interspecific maneuvers at the Opuk training ground in Crimea successfully completed the assigned tasks.
The market reacted almost immediately to the messages about the withdrawal of the contingent involved in the maneuvers. During trading on the Moscow Exchange, the dollar fell to 75.6 rubles, having lost 1.3%, and the euro – to 90.94 rubles (by 1%).
Vladimir Bragin, Director for Financial Markets and Macroeconomics Analysis, Alfa Capital Management Company, Vladimir Bragin, is confident that the strengthening of the Russian currency was influenced by the news about the completion of military exercises in the south-west of Russia.
According to him, market players regarded the maneuvers as a source of nervousness, a signal of increased tension and increased geopolitical risks, which ultimately affected the rate of the national currency. Their current decline is the most important short-term factor for the growth of the ruble, the analyst is sure.
Speaking about the future prospects of the ruble, analysts predict a moderate strengthening of the national currency. Until the end of April, under a favorable scenario, the rate may fall below 74.5 rubles. per dollar, Bragin added.
The ruble may close the second quarter in the range of 72-74 per dollar, forecasts Konstantin Asaturov, portfolio manager of Sistema Capital.
Bilateral live-fire maneuvers on April 22 completed a surprise check of the combat readiness of the Southern and Western military districts, in which two combined-arms armies and three airborne units were deployed to southern Russia and Crimea from other regions.
The exercises involved the Bal and Bastion coastal missile systems, modern attack unmanned aerial vehicles “Pacer”, fast patrol boats “Raptor” and other advanced weapons.
Earlier, foreign politicians and the media announced the deployment of Russian troops to the border with Ukraine as a sign of an impending invasion. At the same time, as the head of the Department of Management and Social Technologies of the North-Western Institute of the RANEPA Inna Vetrenko noted, the exercises in Crimea were planned and announced much earlier than the situation in Donbass began to worsen again.
Read the details in the exclusive material from Izvestia:
“Straight ahead: why the completion of maneuvers in Crimea affected the ruble”