Since July 29, Baku and Ankara have been conducting joint military exercises. They will last more than a week and will also be held near the Armenian-Azerbaijani border, where the old conflict between the two post-Soviet republics has recently escalated. In Yerevan, these maneuvers have already been called a provocation. The situation was discussed by the presidents of Russia and Turkey. How the intervention of an unexpected mediator in the person of Ankara will affect the stabilization of the situation – in the material of Izvestia.
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Border maneuvers
“Azerbaijan-Turkey joint large-scale tactical and flight-tactical exercises with live firing with the participation of ground forces and air forces of both countries will be held in our country. The joint exercises will involve personnel, armored vehicles, artillery installations and mortars, as well as military aviation and air defense equipment of the armies of the two countries “- in such formulations the Azerbaijani Defense Ministry announced joint military maneuvers with Ankara from July 29 to August 10 in Baku, Nakhichevan , Ganja, Kurdamir and Yevlakh.
At the welcoming ceremony for the Turkish military who arrived for the exercises in Azerbaijan
Photo: RIA Novosti / press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan
The foreign ministry of the country explained that the exercises will take place “according to the annual plan” and “serve to enhance coordination and exchange of best practices between the armed forces of the two countries and contribute to strengthening regional peace and security.”
“One nation – two states”
Azerbaijan is the only country in Transcaucasia where the Turkic population dominates. During the existence of the Soviet Union, Baku and Ankara did not become particularly close, however, immediately after the collapse of the USSR, Turkey began to rapidly increase its influence in this state: it helped create the Azerbaijani armed forces and increase their combat effectiveness, and also immediately supported Baku in the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict with Yerevan.
The Turkish authorities have repeatedly stated that relations with Azerbaijan are “one of the highest priorities in the country’s foreign policy.” “The friendship between Ankara and Baku within the framework of the principle of” one nation – two states “will further strengthen in the future,” the now former Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu assured.
Baku is important for Ankara in the context of not only foreign but also domestic policy. More than 3 million Azerbaijanis live on the territory of the country, representing an important electorate. Gradually in Azerbaijan, the pro-Russian politicians are being replaced by officials educated in Turkey. In their actions, they are guided exclusively by Ankara’s policy.
Laying flowers at the monument at the welcoming ceremony for the Turkish military who arrived for the exercises in Azerbaijan
Photo: RIA Novosti / press service of the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan
The states are linked by strong economic contacts: Ankara is one of the main trade partners of Azerbaijan. In addition, the relations between the two countries are of a strategic nature, the countries participate in such important projects as the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline or the TANAP gas pipeline.
In 1992, the countries signed an agreement “On Solidarity and Cooperation”, Turkey began to consistently train military specialists for the Azerbaijani army and supply light equipment. More than 20 Turkish companies involved in the defense industry cooperate with Azerbaijan. In 2010, the parties signed a number of agreements on military-technical cooperation and promised each other mutual support in case one of the parties “undergoes military attack or aggression,” and also agreed to regularly conduct joint maneuvers.
However, this time the military exercises are being held against the background of the aggravation of the conflict with Armenia – the largest armed clashes in the past few years took place on the border between the Armenian Tavush and the Azerbaijani Tovuz. The parties accuse each other of military provocations, which have already claimed two dozen lives on both sides.
In Yerevan, Turkish-Azerbaijani military maneuvers were sharply criticized. The Armenian Foreign Ministry noted that “Turkey has already managed to destabilize the situation in the neighboring regions of the Middle East, Eastern Mediterranean and North Africa.” “Turkey’s biased and provocative behavior causes serious damage to the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict and confirms the fact that Turkey cannot be involved in any international processes related to the settlement of the conflict, primarily within the OSCE,” the foreign ministry said in a commentary …
Mutual shelling
The first message about the outbreak of conflict on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border came from Baku on 12 July. The Azerbaijani Defense Ministry stated that the Armenian armed forces, in violation of the ceasefire regime, fired at the stronghold of the armed forces.
In Yerevan, they said that the first shelling was started by Azerbaijanis. According to Defense Minister David Tonoyan, an UAZ vehicle drove up to the Armenian positions, from which the Azerbaijani military left and headed across the border. They were asked to leave the area. They left, but after that they opened fire from the Azerbaijani side, and the Armenians were forced to respond.
The situation escalated even more four days later, when Baku threatened to launch a missile strike on the Metsamor nuclear power plant, located 37 km from Yerevan, if Armenia fired on strategic objects in Azerbaijan. In particular, we are talking about the Mingechevir reservoir. The international community demanded that the shelling be stopped.
Car after shelling of Aygepar village on the Armenian-Azerbaijani border
Photo: TASS / Photolure / Vahram Baghdasaryan
Since July 17, the situation, according to both sides, is relatively calm. But at the same time, almost every day there are reports of shelling in the border area and near the contact line in Nagorno-Karabakh. On July 27, the Armenian Foreign Ministry announced the death of an Armenian serviceman as a result of sniper fire from the Azerbaijani military. At the same time, the Ministry of Defense of Azerbaijan accused the Armenian side of 45 cases of violation of the ceasefire.
On the same day, Russian President Vladimir Putin discussed by telephone with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan the situation in Transcaucasia against the background of aggravation in the Armenian-Azerbaijani border. The Russian leader “stressed the importance of avoiding any action that would escalate tensions.” “Both sides expressed interest in resolving the conflict situation exclusively by peaceful means, through negotiations. They expressed readiness to coordinate efforts to stabilize the region, ”the Kremlin’s press service said.
“It only fuels conflict.”
Thus, the incident threw back the process of the Karabakh settlement far back, nullifying many diplomatic successes achieved recently. In 2018, President of Azerbaijan Ilham Aliyev and Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan met in Dushanbe. Then they agreed to take measures to reduce tension on the line of contact in Nagorno-Karabakh. The next meeting of the two leaders took place in March 2019 in Vienna, where they decided to continue direct dialogue and agreed on humanitarian measures to resolve the conflict.
According to Armine Manukyan, a specialist in the field of international relations living in Yerevan, Turkey is not a mediator of the conflict in Nagorno-Karabakh. Representatives of the OSCE Minsk Group in resolving the situation are Russia, the United States and France. “Traditionally, when there are battles in a conflict zone, it is Russian mediation that plays an active role. And as in April 2016, we call it the April war, and now both the General Staff and the Russian Foreign Ministry have played a big role, as Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said, ”the political scientist noted. According to Manukyan, recently it became known that Moscow is preparing a meeting in the “three plus two” format to be held this fall. Its goal is to convince the parties to the conflict to sit down at the negotiating table.
Prime Minister of Armenia Nikol Pashinyan
Photo: Izvestia / Pavel Bednyakov
At the same time, a senior researcher at the IMEMO RAS. EAT. Primakova, associate professor of the Diplomatic Academy of the Russian Foreign Ministry Vladimir Avatkov in a conversation with Izvestia notes that Ankara, acting on the side of Baku in any conflict situations between Azerbaijan and Armenia, becomes a party to the conflict. “Unlike Russia, which has repeatedly stated its position as a mediator seeking to resolve the situation between these two countries. Turkey needs to demonstrate itself as the leader of the Turkic world and seeks to do everything to attract the Turkic states of the post-Soviet space into the orbit of its influence“, – said the expert.
According to him, this fits into Ankara’s desire to be a world power and to have its own regional subsystem of the Turkic world, where states would follow in the wake of its interests. “Turkey has been expanding its military presence outside its territory for a long time. It has a base in Qatar and is fighting for its military presence, including in the Turkic states of the CIS. These exercises are part of Ankara’s plan to increase its presence in these states and to demonstrate its solidarity with Azerbaijan, readiness to strengthen its influence in this state, ”the specialist noted.
Armine Manukyan is confident that Turkey’s intervention will only further exacerbate the situation. “Ankara always supports Azerbaijan and its aggressive policy. During this exacerbation, Turkey at all levels supported Baku and announced its readiness to intervene if Azerbaijan wants it. Naturally, this only incites the conflict, ”the expert told Izvestia. – Turkey is not going to take into account the concessions either from Armenia, or from Nagorno-Karabakh, or from Azerbaijan. Now Ankara’s role is to destabilize the situation in the region ”.
